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Mid-day Update… Stuck?
Break lower can end today, or not for awhile.
The prior week’s multi-session range that was providing support at 2495.50 is now providing resistance at 2492.50. And chipping away at 2495.50 did reveal the “air pocket” below it as was suspected.
Its break was likely to produce a test of 2485.00-2486.00, which is where the air pocket bottomed. The next lower objective is essentially 2460.00, but the catalyst being a headline could avoid that — if recovered today.
Recovering today would have plenty of upside. This morning’s bias parameter had put into play an offsetting test of its 2503.00 bias-up signal. And it wasn’t rejected. The 2496.00 bias-down signal wasn’t broken until after 10:30. Its 2489.75 bias-down target was still being overlapped as the bias environment was lapsing. Bias intact, so 2503.00 has become “unfinished business above.”
I’d much prefer the confidence of clearly holding 2489.75 as support, or breaking it. Fresh session lows are possible, regardless of an attraction above to 2503.00. exiting the noon hour back above 2492.50 would have suggested a detour has been avoided. Triggering bias-down would have said otherwise. Neither setup formed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 26, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: There’s nowhere to hide from Tuesday’s list of Fed speakers, most of whom are reliably influential to price action. Especially the afternoon appearance of Fed chair Yellen. Plenty of econ reports are available, too, nominally influential to price action.
Neel Kashkari Speaks
Mon 6:30 PM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
9:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks
11:50 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:30 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2498.25 | 2495.50 |
| …would target | 2503.75 | 2501.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2490.25 | 2487.50 |
| …would target | 2484.75 | 2482.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Still holding out.
Bouncing off of prior lows, instead of breaking them.
The overnight slide down to 2495.00 had bounced up to 2499.00. All of which was retraced to pierce a fresh low. The open was greeted once again at 2495.50 support, for which there is no bullish reason to be revisiting.
But 2495.50 still hasn’t broken lower. The opening 15 minutes ranged back up to 2497.50. So did the next 15 minutes.
Breaking higher avoided triggering the 2496.00 bias-down signal at 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2503.00 bias-up signal. Already, 2500.00 has been touched. The higher objective remains in-play so long as 2497.00 holds as support.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Nice wind-up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s lower participation extended through Friday, producing a narrowing 4-point range and a late break higher. Plunging overnight to 2492.00 and mostly retracing before the open to unchanged at 2499.00 didn’t have much effect intraday. Two attractions outstanding below had been neutralized by the overnight plunge but that wasn’t converted into a recovery into positive territory. Repeatedly chipping away at 2495.50 support — for which there is no bullish reason to have revisited intraday — never broke lower either. A late surge up to 2501.00 wasn’t entirely sustained into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Germany elections weren’t kind to the status quo “elites” which triggered the Euro to gap down. The Globex open’s knee-jerk reaction was only a blip-down to 2497.50 that immediately reversed up. And up. Friday’s late 2501.00 high was probed up to 2504.50, touching Thursday’s opening high. But the overnight choppiness was only expanding, and another reversal has fallen back to Friday’s 2495.00-2495.50 lows.
If, then…
There was no bullish reason to revisit 2495.50 intraday Friday. Any delay in breaking lower then was likely only a function of the weekend’s impending illiquidity. Meanwhile, repeatedly testing it only chipped away at its support. Now it is being revisited overnight again, for which there’s still no bullish reason. This also follows the overnight probe above Friday’s highs that is seemingly being rejected. And the wide overnight range reflects an opinionated market, unlikely to range narrowly intraday. Almost any open that probes negative territory is likely to extend down. But the choppiness does keep alive potential for one more attempt to absorb sellers.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2500.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2503.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2498.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2496.00 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour of all tool overnight choppy wide-ranging overnight and it’s a little bit different than the two wider-ranging overnights that had greeted us previously as The Weeknd adheres before Friday’s open that I’m sorry that’s Thursday here is before Wednesday’s open those were recovered and not resume that pretty much left the market Shell Shocked not reversing Rich racing and Thursday nights tracing not reversing not reversing very late there’s a fire at the open even with the elections coming back that didn’t do well at the moment status quo and then reverses back down there remember they’re already know which could have been isolated to Thursday night but it was tested at Fridays open then at that point it’s just a matter of timing timing timing proximity to the weekend to the weekends overnight again and again there’s no reason for that but pretty soon after we should be in today Thursday 8138 e 88 880 dad’s ID to find a low gap down on the election results be held its bouncing bouncing it now right back down to the reaction Lowe’s which by the way should have been just a precursor to a tracing the entirety of this pit Electronics support back to the actual low if not already or also through it and then the UN which has a confirm break out so at least an eventual third lower close is required silver clean 17 signal but pretty critical support gold similarly down here at 12 9850 critical support but not this quickly 5430 which it is trying to utilize more last night than previously but it’s ready to break as much as I would need to retest this low last week slow and hold it yeah but it comes at a time pretty helpful touching 302 and not closing above it would be very much so 302 we’re going to be touched it otherwise and leave the door open tomorrow but it’s on its last legs.