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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending higher again overnight had reacted down ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC events, testing the Pivotal Uptrending Support that has defined the past week’s rally. And yet another reaction up probed a fresh high at 1.2092. The FOMC reaction plunged back into Monday’s range at 1.1985, Extending down immediately isn’t required, but 1.1945 is the next lower attraction.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1310.50 as support again Tuesday wasn’t the most bullish position for greeting Wednesday’s FOMC events. Already closing above 1318.50 would have been more bullish, but it was only tested overnight, and held intraday ahead of the post-close news. The knee-jerk reaction spiked down $11 to test this week’s lows around 1308.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming overnight had probed the 17.30 buy signal that had avoided triggering Tuesday. But extending to test 17.50 didn’t prevent a reaction down from attacking 17.25.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s open wasn’t greeted optimistically, as price continued testing 154-04 as support. Its test probed its lowest levels down to 153-29. Not yet recovering any relevant resistance ahead of the FOMC events Knee-jerk reaction to the news probed slightly lower momentarily.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward today to Nov, which trades at a 40-cent premium to Oct…] Overnight and morning action remained within Tuesday’s range. But Wednesday’s open gapped up to Monday’s close and the morning extended back up to last week’s high, where a higher close would signal the rally had resumed
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging had started giving way overnight, with plenty of room below to expend selling pressure without it damaging the bullish chart. Testing 3.10 Wednesday still had room to 3.07 or 3.02 before suggesting momentum reversing down.
Mid-day Update… Waiting for the news. And the other news.
FOMC events dead ahead.
The open’s tests of fresh highs and of the morning’s 2507.00 bias-up signal held, putting into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2498.00 bias-down signal. It was attacked down to 2502.50, making it “unfinished business below.”
Meanwhile, the relatively narrow range persists as this afternoon’s FOMC events get nearer. Probing in either direction is possible. Probing in both directions is possible, too. Either or both probe could reach double-digits before reversing, if reversing.
And the reaction to the policy statement could be undone during Yellen’s Q&A. Especially if initial trending were to probe either end of this afternoon’s 2498.00-2507.00 no-bias environment.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Several high-profile reports are released Thursday morning. But only two are reliable for triggering price reaction. Regardless, noticeable price reaction would likely be duplicated on the subsequent reports. Meanwhile, volume will be lower along with participation, as the Jewish New Year Rosh Hashana is celebrated.
Mario Draghi speaks
time unknown
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Survey
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2509.00 | 2507.00 |
| …would target | 2515.25 | 2513.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2500.00 | 2498.00 |
| …would target | 2494.00 | 2492.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Will gravity take it from here?
Open’s blip-up attracts only sellers.
Pre-open action had returned to hovering pessimistically short of probing the 2506.00 high. The opening bar’s spike up to 2507.25 was retraced almost as quickly back down to 2504.75. Another surge back up to 2507.25 was resolved similarly, albeit more slowly. Slower, but more substantially, probing under the pre-open’s range down to 2503.75.
The dip lasted long enough not to trigger the 2507.00 bias-up signal. And having tested it, an offsetting test of the 2498.00 bias-down signal is now in-play.
Normally, gravity would suffice for attracting price to fulfill an offsetting test. Today, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events, gravity is competing against anxiousness. Fresh lows aren’t assured, and neither is avoiding another test of the highs — more so if fresh lows haven’t yet been probed before the FOMC.