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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
PROGRAMMING SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: I’m hosting a special introductory overview of the If Then method after Wednesday’s close. Onboarding for newer subscribers, refresher for seasoned subscribers, and a good opportunity to focus on strategy and tactics as market volatility begins heating up again… More info to follow.
Gapping up to 2755.00 and trending almost straight up entered the noon hour at 2781.00. 
The rally’s character changed slightly, more of stair-stepping than relentlessness. But pullbacks weren’t much deeper, and they maintained the ongoing trending series of higher highs and higher lows.
The afternoon’s bias-up signal triggered, missing perhaps the session’s last serious opportunity to reverse the trend down. Meeting the 2788.00 bias-up target didn’t reverse down any more so than the session’s previous consolidations, as the last half-hour hovered at the highs.
Avoiding an intraday correction was Monday’s last bit of excessive optimism. Add it to having gapped up, rallying sharply then relentlessly. None of which equates to being a sell signal. But no “unfinished business” remains outstanding, testing the 2775.00 higher prior lows and the afternoon’s 2788.00 bias-up target.
The bias environment’s 2:30 exit did lapse above the noon hour high, and the 3:10-3:20 proxy window trend to fresh session highs. That’s officially traction. It’s not as reliable since the afternoon bias environment only ranged narrowly around its entry. But not already trending down overnight would be likely to probe higher Tuesday morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow ranging wasn’t contained entirely within Friday’s range, but it only fluctuated around unchanged. And Friday itself was an Inside Day, biased-upward, which suggests that buyers are weak-handed and the recent low will be retested.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Monday back to the 1295.70 buy signal was extended intraday to attack 1290.00 support, in proximity of filling the gap back to Thursday’s 1286.50 close. Meanwhile, any close back above 1295.70 would be credible for resuming the rally.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday morning’s test and retest of the 15.27 buy signal as support ultimately went out fluctuating narrowly around it, with a close above 15.40 still needed to confirm the rally is underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Monday within Friday’s range was retraced to fill the gap back up to Friday’s close, which held, and reacted back down to the morning’s 145-17 lows — still above the pre-open 145-11 low. No higher objective is required since the confirmed breakout’s minimum third higher close was fulfilled Friday. A pullback currently has room down to 145-04 before reversing the trend down.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s post-open recovery gapped up Monday and extended quickly to touch the 57.00 buy signal. Again. Unlike last week’s last 3 tests, the signal was retested intraday. Both tests reacted down, but 57.00 was still attacked again. Closing above it would be likely to extend higher without delay.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday’s open gapped down and extended lower for Monday’s gap down to test the 2.78 sleeper low. Ranging flat-to-lower through the morning did not gaining traction to the downside, and keeps alive a likelihood for filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2.86 close — if not also if not also for resuming the rally above 2.89 resistance.
Mid-day Update… Still upticking.
Afternoon bias-up triggered.
That potential up to “higher prior lows” at 2775.00? It was met before the bias environment was even within view of lapsing — 10 points ago. The noon hour was entered at 2781.00, this afternoon’s 2782.50 bias-up signal has triggered, and fresh highs are testing 2785.00. The 2788.00 bias-up target is in-play.
The nearest sell signal would trigger under 2780.50. Which is pretty aggressive, especially for this being a bias-up environment. But as extended as today’s rally has become, any stumble would suggest a deeper detour underway, perhaps only to test this afternoon’s 2774.75 bias-down signal.
Meanwhile, upside momentum remains intact. And fresh highs since 1:20 should at least require any pullback to recover.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 12, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The post-open CPI is Tuesday’s only high-profile OR reliably influential econ report. The 10-year auction could inhibit price action ahead of its results.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*CPI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2777.50 | 2782.50 |
| …would target | 2783.00 | 2788.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2769.50 | 2774.75 |
| …would target | 2760.75 | 2766.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.