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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Jobs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Is this week’s rally the product of constructive strength, or of excessive optimism? Regardless, the character of each higher objectives test has contained shallower and briefer pullbacks, with less and less pessimism. Tuesday’s close above 2438.00 had only touched 2448.00 intraday instead of closing above it. So, Wednesday’s open still had to absorb weakness before resuming the recovery, despite having rallied briefly overnight to 2454.00. Recovering 2454.00 Wednesday extended to within ticks of 2461.00. Thursday’s gap up leap-frogged over that fulfill 2469.00 through the open. Breaking higher into the afternoon bias environment’s exit extended to 2474.25. It was unusually optimistic ahead of Payrolls, which the market seemed to realize, too, as the close dropped sharply back down to 2469.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging has worked its way slowly higher back up to 2474.25 through Europe’s opens. A reaction down to 2471.00 has recovered more aggressively to fresh highs, now attacking 2477.00.
If, then…
The next higher objective is 2477.00. Its test isn’t required, but its test would allow us to infer meaning from its reaction, which wouldn’t otherwise be available. There’s still some meaning to derive from only attacking it. Avoiding its test yesterday and dipping back down to 2469.00 told us the rally shied away from rejecting the corrective bounce label. That keeps the door open today to fresh highs being retraced. Back under 2469.00 through a relevant timing window — especially if 2477.00 were first tested, but not necessarily — could tell us the trend is reversing down. Regardless, a lot of optimism has developed ahead of the Employment Situation report. Granted, it’s significance this month is being downplayed, so not already retracing a favorable reaction or actually reversing down through the open could trend up into the three-day weekend. An unusual econ calendar has several other high-profile influential reports coming post-open, too.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2474.00 would be likely to trigger the 2472.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2469.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market or its September it’s the last it’s the first day of the month we have a employment situation report coming out in the morning interesting lady that is quite possibly not going to be the most relevant economic report of the day it’s being downplayed considerably that may account for have so much optimism has been developing this week but not so much this week and it we were pretty oversold and there was a pretty negative event with North Korea to stretch that rubber band but this close to the report itself Thursday’s Gap up notwithstanding to Trend up even more so into the prior afternoon not that it was maintained but still that it can be volatile ahead of the employment situation report is unusual it’s unusual to have the employment situation report released around several other reports look at the economic calendar report that I put out the day before you know here’s the employment situation report normally that’s all you’d see and count but the weekly recount but today not only is there it was is being a three-day holiday weekend I mean good just this being a Friday with two days of a liquidity but this being a three-day holiday weekend when we’re going to see a lot of volume disappear after we get through the reactions the mid-morning reactions to the news to the Post open news if the markets on trajectory if it’s got some momentum behind it to extend it can keep going whichever direction it’s already put in a plate alright so I’ll have levels on screen as we getting to be open I don’t usually play crude oil overnight had come within a dime of the 4550 Target and then snapped back up second consecutive are closed today and we will give that every benefit of the doubt that the downside is done at least for near-term purposes of a bigger rally but it’s that makes a pretty critical day if today does not close hire more so if today closes under prioritize like under 4650 then we’ll very much look for the decline to have resumed and Cindy obviously resuming sooner rather than later so critical day today the natural gas which reacted well to the eia report yesterday itself is a breakout needing one more second consecutive are closed today to confirm that the big bottoming pattern we’ve been tracking his done alright let’s in the recording here if there’s any questions go ahead and post .
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2473.00 | 2472.25 |
| …would target | 2478.00 | 2477.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2464.25 | 2463.50 |
| …would target | 2458.25 | 2457.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
A lot of optimism has been expressed ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Almost all the way through the close, but for a late reversal down.
The next higher objective above 2438.00, 2448.00 and 2454.00 was 2469.00. Its early test Thursday coincided with downtrending pivotal resistance, and their influence price down through the morning bias environment to the open’s 2463.50-2464.25 buy signal. Resistance had become support, still in positive territory, as the bias environment began lapsing.
Not breaking any lower would marginalize sellers for the day. Trending back up from 11:30 into noon would confirm. The rally resumed as the afternoon’s no-bias environment began lapsing, extending up to 2474.25. But rather than close above 2469.00 and put into play the next higher objective at 2477.00, a late reversal attacked 2468.00.While rallying to 2477.00 still wouldn’t be enough to disqualify this week’s rally as only temporary, the corrective rally label is getting thin. So, closing above 2469.00 and putting into play 2477.00 would have been only a formality before exceeding the corrective rally limits. Thursday’s close back at 2469.00 keeps the label intact.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s gap down to and through the 1.1945 sell signal could be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close, despite it being unlikely. Thursday’s pre-open probe lower in reaction to negative ECB comments tried making it likelier, which the afternoon’s favorable US Treasury comments retraced back up to unchanged and avoided confirming the sell signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night’s “flash crash” was recovered entirely back above the 1310.50 pullback limit and then reversed up through an adjusted 1317.00 buy signal. The 1319.50 pullback limit was recovered, too, essentially targeting a retest of Tuesday night’s 1332.00 high.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Thursday retraced 61.8% of Tuesday’s intraday reversal from its 17.69 opening gap, a gap that still needs to be filled as it was above all prior highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow sideways ranging Thursday continued waiting out the market’s stability, barely reacting down to the lack of demand for a “flight-to-safety.” .
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight came within a dime of the 45.50 target but reacted up sharply to 47.35 Thursday morning. Back under 46.40 through Friday’s close may be the only way to resume the decline.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA was not greeted from a position of strength, but the pre-announcement dip to 2.91 was reversed back up sharply through 2.98 to fresh highs at 3.05. This suggests the bottom is complete, awaiting confirmation from a second consecutive higher close on Friday.
Mid-day Update… Safe for another day?
Opportunity to reverse down fails.
The gap up and its extension to 2469.50 had fulfilled the next higher 2469.00 objective. It also intersected with downtrending pivotal resistance off of July’s high. And it reacted down sharply — first, back to the open’s 2464.25 buy signal, and then to 2463.25.
That second, deeper dip was a second bite at a 2465.50 sell signal. It probed under the first test’s 2464.25 low. And it was recovered, entirely, back up through the noon hour to touch the morning’s 2469.50 high.
Sellers should be marginalized for the day, or at least until the final hour. Its proof would be in the rally should meanwhile extending higher. If buyers can’t exploit the opportunity, then the final hour would be that much more vulnerable to reversing down.
Already the afternoon’s no-bias signal triggered. Probing above its 2468.50 bias-up signal after 2:30 would go a long way to resuming the upside momentum. Otherwise, just hovering at the highs or briefly probing fresh highs would be vulnerable to collapsing into the close.