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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s collapse to sharply lower lows from a multi-session range was nevertheless a breakout. But Friday bounced instead of confirming with a second consecutive lower close. This isn’t a buy signal, but holding an intraday test of the gap back down to Thursday’s 1.1195 close — which is likely to be retested — could help to form a bottom.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already rallying overnight to touch the 1295.75 buy signal extended through it at Friday’s open up to 1301.50 to signal a rally leg underway. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up to the adjusted 15.27 buy signal extended higher intraday to attack the previous 15.40 signal. A second consecutive higher close on Monday would confirm.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength reacted favorably on the news, and was positioned to produce the confirmed breakout’s minimum third higher close — which would become vulnerable to reversing back down to retest last Sunday night’s lows.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s pre-open retest of the 57.00 buy signal had avoided triggering again. Overnight action drifted lower to retest uptrending support that had absorbed the prior buy signal test’s reaction. This test wasn’t absorbed as Friday’s 55.10 open gapped down well under it to three-week old “lower prior highs.” Bouncing intraday held prior lows as support, but ran into resistance that can’t is likelier to produce a retest of Friday’s gap down than to recover.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating within the past week’s range all but requires at least a probe of fresh highs, although first dipping would be more capable of converting a probe of fresh highs into a new rally leg.
Mid-day Update… Sticking the lows.
Choppy morning stuck around the open, but that window is done.
If only 3 of the first hour’s 15-minute checkpoints had overlapped the same relevant level, then we would still have suspected a Dry Cleaners morning. There were 4-5 overlaps today at 2732.00, to which every leg and trending attempt has returned.
That was the morning bias environment. This is the afternoon.
Trending down since the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 has returned to within 1 tick of the morning’s next lower objective at 2727.25. The leg’s timing held a test of this afternoon’s 2729.00 bias-down target as support. This is a bias-down environment, but its target was met instead of renewing the bias-down signal.
Back under 2727.25 would nevertheless put into play the next lower objective at 2720.50. Meanwhile, the bias-down environment has room to fluctuate as noise back up to its 2735.50 bias-down signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 11, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Retail Sales hasn’t been particularly influential for quite awhile, especially not without a surprise. It was surprising last month in its weakness, which influenced price action, so it will inhibit price action as the week starts.
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2740.75 | 2746.00 |
| …would target | 2746.50 | 2751.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2730.75 | 2735.50 |
| …would target | 2724.25 | 2729.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Anchored.
Gap down holds. Only holds.
Hovering at the 2741.50 bias-down target since Europe’s opens had formed a Descending Triangle. 
The knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report spiked down to 2730.00 and then probed lower to 2727.75. The next lower objective was met.
Bouncing through the open attacked 2738.00 before reversing down to fresh lows at 2726.50. Its reaction up to 2735.50 will have attracted reinforcement by printing any higher, targeting 2745.00 or 2748.00.
Back under 2730.00 would otherwise be credible for extending down to 2720.50. More credible than a buy signal, since only a buy signal has attracted reinforcements.
Meanwhile, 4 and almost 5 of the first hour’s opening 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level — the 2732.00 opening print. If not for gapping down, this would signal a Dry Cleaners morning and suggest staying away. But having gapped open to a fresh extreme, it represents an anchor that is likely to be revisited regardless of the interim trending attempt.