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Post-open Review… Holding on.
Pre-open dip holds support.
Having probed yesterday’s high overnight, exiting the open under the 2445.25 overnight low would have reversed momentum down. It was probed pre-open and post-open down to 2442.75, with an interim test of 2445.25.
2445.25 was recovered again well before the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed. And that has since extended up to 2449.25. The usual reward is at least to retest the 2454.25 overnight high.
Normally, this setup also would marginalize sellers through at least the morning. Today is suspicious, for a couple of reasons — lacking velocity at the inflection points, and 1-minute RSI repeatedly avoiding overbought territory.
No consequence is required, but often another downdraft develops anyway. If a downdraft does develop, it would likely be absorbed, and recovered, attracted to a retest of the overnight high.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Pushing it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping down 20 points at Monday’s Globex open in reaction to North Korea’s actions produced an overnight range largely defined as 2423.00-2436.50. It was centered around the decline’s 2427.25-2429.00 objective that had become likely when last week’s tests of 2438.00 had failed to end the decline. Tuesday’s opening bar printed all of 2427.25-2429.00, which immediately launched a session-long rally up to 2448.50. The last half-hour consolidated down to its 2445.00 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday night’s Globex quickly recovered to probe Tuesday’s high by 1 point. Ranging narrowly at 2449.50 spiked up into Europe’s opens testing 2454.00. Little time was spent there before sliding back down into Tuesday’s range.
If, then…
Touching 2448.00 yesterday required closing above it to be bullish. Not closing back under 2438.00 prevented it from being bearish. But it’s not a reliable base for extending the recovery. The reaction to testing 2454.00 resistance highlights the thin sponsorship. Testing it intraday isn’t required, and it’s no likelier to hold. But having probed the prior session’s high overnight, maintaining an open under the overnight low usually puts the morning on defense. And there’s room down to 2438.00 if only to build a better recovery base.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2453.25 would be likely to trigger the 2450.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2446.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s morning market tour second Tuesday in a row something about Tuesday’s huge intraday one-way skis me Relentless rally not that the last one accomplished anything durable and not that this one will but there’s a chance chance this was a really big test is open 24 25 2429 objective that was never required tried and tried to hold the opportunity so the prior sessions range overnight his reversed to open an exit be opening 15 minutes open under the opposite end of the other night range so they overnight high was probed exiting the open under the overnight low would be bearish barish to 2438 if not 35 head again on the first shot probably limited to that and maybe that’s the only shot they’re probably bounce to some degree from there so the upside is going to need to hold positive territories going to need to avoid 2445 or if there is a pro Bender 2445 is going to need to recover it preferably before the open and not look back or at least isolate any kind of dip under 45 to the opening 15 minutes and already have recovered it back about 48 that would be bullish or would put the bullish spin back in or just already be back and rally mode 5050 5050 is the bias of signal it gets to 5750 and probably 261 say the clothes next lower objective that didn’t hold 13 10:50 and not even an objective just pulled back them it under 13 1050 would indicate that despite having his Gap up outstanding above all prioritize that would want to be retested which by the way is a break out or amount to do a breakout multi-session range even after Friday’s gyrations still ended in the range Monday was a break out Tuesday was it’s confirmation so we know however deep the pull back stretches there’s at least a third of ential her clothes outstanding and last night did dip to attack 13 10:50 which you can see it support so there’s no Assurance of recovering 13 1850 1319 this morning but that’s basically Now by signal Buy Signal it gets back to the high someone similarly on Silver but not as stretched just slightly deeper 1780 Target outstanding not the same break out and confirmation but being a company and hire a company company and gold higher Long Pond has higher highs overnight that weren’t retested intraday they were attacked before sliding stopping not in the silly optimistically short of lower price but there is that room coming stop short twice filling the Gap testing lower paralyzed if that Gap is filled at the lower price or touched it’s probably to be probed dead + 15616 + – crude oil still under pressure flat to lower then a lower overnight but the drain remains and play down to the next targeting 45.58 reports this morning it’s not being greeted from a position of strength and then Natural Gas natural gas on Monday this huge fluctuation .
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2451.50 | 2450.50 |
| …would target | 2458.50 | 2457.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2442.50 | 2441.50 |
| …would target | 2436.50 | 2435.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
[Market Wrap was held 30 minutes early because I had to leave the screens for Tuesday’s last half-hour.]
North Korea’s actions served as an external catalyst to accomplish what the ongoing decline was already seeking to do organically. That pushed the decline’s sponsorship to the sidelines. Happily, since being strong-handed sellers, they prefer selling into strength. Which is what they got, since no more missiles meant no reinforcements to the knee-jerk reaction selling. [Click here for a video description of that analysis.]
So, the new question is when and where will strong-handed sellers start creeping back in? Filling the gap back up to Monday’s ~2443.50 close neutralized its attraction above. But it was attacked and tested so hesitatingly as to suggest it contained enough pessimism to fuel a bigger bounce. The next higher resistance at 2448.00.was tested intraday without closing above it. And the close wasn’t back under 2438.00, which would have signaled the bounce was done.
Wednesday can still extend through the 2454.00 upper-end of last Wednesday-Friday’s range to test 2461.00. And still qualify as a correction. But gapping down Wednesday under 2438.00 would invalidate by proxy Tuesday’s recovery. Fresh lows targeting 2411.75 and sub-2400.00 would be in-play — and probably no longer offering much support.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Closing above the 1.1970 objective Monday extended sharply higher overnight to 1.2082. Already dipping into the open, Tuesday trended down to almost fill the gap back to Monday’s 1.1922 close. Overnight highs would like to be retested, but a deeper pullback to 1.1945 can’t be dismissed.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Missiles flying always brings out the best in Gold. And having closed above 1313.00 Monday it surged through its 1322.00 target to 1332.00. Tuesday’s open was $2 off the high, and trended back down to 1319.00 pullback limit. The next lower support is 1310.50 to keep alive the near-term likelihood of retesting the overnight high.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Higher highs overnight at 17.67 were backing off a little into Tuesday’s open, still short of the 17.80 target. Trending back down intraday largely held positive territory while filling the gap back to Monday’s 17.45 close.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The flight-to-safety trade resumed with a vengeance, extending sharply higher overnight to fresh highs at 158-04. Trending back down post-open twice stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s 156-23 close. The overnight high’s retest is likely so long as 156-16 holds as support.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow sideways action greeted Tuesday’s session which only traded flat-to-lower through the morning. The next lower objective at 45.50 remains intact, presumably on the way to retesting the lows.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s post-open rally off of gapping down was able to test 2.98 resistance. Its reaction filled the gap back down to Monday’s close under 2.95 and recovered back to the open’s high. Almost any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher, and for dismissing the potential for a deeper pullback targeting 2.84.