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Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2448.25 | 2447.50 |
| …would target | 2453.50 | 2452.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2439.75 | 2439.00 |
| …would target | 2434.25 | 2433.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s open mirrored Friday’s gap up, in that both were too shallow to be maintained. At least Friday’s gap up extended higher before reversing into negative territory. Monday’s gap up began reversing down immediately, also eventually probing negative territory.
Negative territory was probed down to 2438.00. That’s relevant support, but it already had an opportunity to launch a recovery. Testing it during the noon hour does keep open the door to recovery, but doesn’t relieve it from needing to gap up. Otherwise, there’s no bullish reason to have retested 2438.00, and its break would target 2427.25-2429.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having spiked up into the weekend, gapping up Sunday night touched the 1.1955-1.1970 target area’s upper-end. Its reaction down was recovered entirely through the morning, and extended to fresh highs attacking 1.2000.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s retest of the 1288.00 sell signal was deeper than Tuesday, and its reaction still held a test of its prior high. But it was a second failure to extend lower, which Sunday night exploited by rallying into Monday morning’s test of the 1302.00 buy signal. A second leg surged to its 1313.00 target, and through it to also test 1315.00, next targeting 1322.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.90 sell signal had held two tests as support and closed back at its prior high, while testing what had been the rally’s 17.05 pullback limit. Sunday night probed higher to test its 17.20 buy signal into Monday’s open. Reacting down toward unchanged was reversed up by another upleg attacking 17.50, all but ensuring 17.80 is targeted.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging narrowly Sunday night while stocks were battered about does reflect a degree of stability to keep alive the likelihood for one more probe higher. But it also reflects some complacency creeping in to suggest that one more probe higher may be final.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s bounce back up to the 47.95 sell signal resolved down sharply Monday morning to fresh lows at 46.15, which should not be retested at this stage unless the next downleg is actually getting underway. the next lower support is at 45.50.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Oct, which is trading at a 2-3 cent premium to Sep]. Dropping overnight extended to fresh lows at 2.88 within a nickel of the 2.84 target. A post-open surge tested 2.98 briefly, which the decline would marginalize as noise by closing back under 2.94.
Mid-day Update… More to come?
Gap up’s rejection holds.
Retracing the open’s 2448.25 gap up fell to 2440.50 as the morning’s bias environment began. Its reaction up tested 2445.00 and fell to 2438.00 during the noon hour. This afternoon’s 2439.00 bias-down signal held its test to trigger no-bias. And now a bounce is testing 2442.00.
The bounce could extend up to the 2444.00 area, and still be likely to resolve down. This morning’s “unfinished business below” at 2439.75 has been neutralized, so another rally leg can’t be dismissed — back above 2445.00 would start to signal something more substantial underway.
Otherwise, back under 2439.25 would all but ensure extending to fresh lows. And fresh lows at this point all but ensures testing 2427.25-2429.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 29, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence is the day’s only report that’s reliable for influencing price action. But any noticeable impact by either pre-open report is likely to be duplicated post-open.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET