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Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2456.75 | 2454.75 |
| …would target | 2462.75 | 2460.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2448.00 | 2446.00 |
| …would target | 2443.00 | 2441.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Relentless, indeed.
Overnight drop finds reinforcements.
Initially bouncing 3 points from a test of this morning’s 2461.50, which is this morning’s bias-down target, the overnight drop never recovered. The opening print was essentially 2461.50, 
and it quickly attacked prior lows. Another quick bounce was absorbed and reversed down quickly to fulfill the bearish scenario of sellers taking immediately control.
And the results were dramatic. The opening 15 minutes of volatility ended at what would have been the 2455.75 renewed bias-down target. Its reaction up to 2460.00 really let go with a plunge to 2449.00.
Although that last plunge is now bouncing back up to 2455.75, the mold is already set. The initial bounce from 2455.75 could have ended the drop — 9:45 was the low print, RSIs diverged positively on its retest, and its bounce limit was violated. But not only were the conditions not exploited, an attempt failed. There is no second bite at that apple this morning, and all bounces to whatever degree should also fail.
Back under 2453.75 would start to signal the decline resuming. And the decline should resume regardless, so long as 2458.25 isn’t recovered.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Buyers all spent.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Overnight dips under Tuesday’s 2467.50 low had repeatedly returned to test 2467.50, and to probe it. The choppiness ultimately ended in a late rally that stopped 1 tick short of filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2472.00-2473.00 close. That was the cash session close. None of which had strong-handed sponsorship. Futures then ticked higher to 2474.25, natural resistance at Tuesday’s open.
Overnight action’s new info…
Having stretched the rubber band, Globex began snapping back. Overnight action has only trended down. A bounce at 2466.00 consolidated through Europe’s opens without breaking either way. But that eventually broke lower anyway, and just tested this morning’s 2461.50 bias-down target. RSI improvement is trying to force a bounce.
If, then…
If Wednesday avoided trending down for any reason, it is that overnight sellers had discounted the open deeply enough to dissuade sellers. Not entirely, since intraday dips still developed, and intraday bounces were still absorbed. The last one, too, but not until overnight. So, is Thursday’s open being greeted by another deep discount? Holding a test of relevant support would suggest as much, and allow a morning rally. But having dipped already to a relevant level (the bias-down target) and stopping optimistically short of yesterday’s lows, trending down this morning is likely to quickly resume the overnight slide.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2458.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2461.50 bias-down target by 10:15, and renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2455.75 and 2445.75. Exiting the open under 2463.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2467.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2470.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
Alright good morning and welcome and we go it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s morning market tour double digits August 10 days double digits in August time flies double digits overnight not at the moment but yesterday’s having Monday night or Tuesday and it’s going to collapse until after the open is too late either one of those situations would still be vulnerable to recovery let alone actually trending up through the open but that’s the flip side is it’s not binary it’s not a matter of trend down or up if the open isn’t immediately trending down there’s no requirement on immediately trending backup alright let’s look at some other Market starting with currencies the Aussie which did break lower yesterday not extending down overnight not rejecting the overnight or No Yes Or Break overnight but not extending down anyway if not rejected then 78 is in play the PAD as well not extending down it’s still sitting here around 1:30 really not a lot of reason to be retesting that at this stage but it is support until broken Looney is piercing lower probing lower long way off from what could have been a queen recovery backup to the high basically midpoint now gyro not really rejecting these lower prioritize being tested retested reread tested let alone breaking back above any kind of a Buy Signal inflection point so that delay is costing it is suggesting that it doesn’t have sponsorship and this is the last opportunity closing any lower closing under one 1730 would Target a retest initially of 115 Longmont doesn’t really know what to do with itself it’s flat it’s already held a big Target it was mad yesterday morning so doesn’t seem interested today and immediately extending higher above yesterday’s high which is the condition the parameter that says the rally is extending and not that at top is topping but we’ll see what today ends today does break lower of today stocks to collapse if there is a flight to safety that could be just the kick needed to get out of this I love you say hi and put bonds into a new move crude oil now breaking back up to 50 toward 5010 extended Consolidated range we have to invoke the rule that extending near away or into a narrowing range tens initially to break falsely in One Direction before reversing more substantial in the opposite direction so apparently on our way to retest the high 5010 to some level I would rather we get up into the 51 handle yeah it’s likely because of the delay in because of the narrowing going to be only a false break-in reversed maybe so much similarly to stocks as they did yesterday and then natural gas today from a position of strength greeting from a position of strength trending up a little bit of t92 is resistance to 91292 nothing that prevents initially negative knee-jerk reaction down and other than it being outsized could be substantial enough to prove a fresh low that is one nagging one nagging feature missing from the bottom that the retest of last Tuesday’s low only developed pre-open don’t see it on the intraday chart it was only pretty open not to mention that the intraday went on to stop optimistically short several times of repeating that so just one caveat make it through the eia report and we could have a bottom formed write any questions let me know I’ll see you before the open good luck today .
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2477.50 | 2474.75 |
| …would target | 2482.75 | 2480.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2470.25 | 2467.50. |
| …would target | 2464.25 | 2461.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
All of the overnight and intraday sessions following Tuesday’s plunge were spent in negative territory. Sharply lower lows were probed during both. Each bounced only to attack or to pierce Tuesday’s low. Even the late rally stopped 1 tick short of filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2472.00-2473.00 close.
It’s definitely pessimism. But is it bearish, or is it only “ineffectual pessimism”?
Remaining glued to Tuesday’s 2467.50 low doesn’t suggest the breaks lower have strong-handed selling sponsorship. The afternoon’s 2462.50 low holding 3 points above the morning’s low doesn’t reflect a lot of new selling pressure.
All of which would have been bullish going forward, until the late rally. While it only attacked yesterday’s close, it did at least attack yesterday’s close. With fresh session highs. Then futures continued climbing to attack 2474.00.
Sellers are too weak-handed to resume the decline without first bouncing, either to 2474.00 or to 2478.00. That said, that WAS said before the late rally had extended so far, and so late as to still be weak-handed. Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s ~2463.00 lows could form a “session-long decline” that launches the next downleg.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.