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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A strong reaction to the US Senate punting on healthcare triggered an overnight surge through 1.1525 that gapped up sharply Tuesday, now targeting 1.1650 so long as 1.1575 now holds as support.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher overnight extended Tuesday morning to attack the next higher objective at 1244.00. Above 1245.50 could extend up to 1260.00, but back under 1234.00 would now target 1222.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s static session that didn’t extend its gap up was nevertheless extended Tuesday to test 16.35 resistance. Two consecutive sessions of gapping up are vulnerable to a correction down to 15.95.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slow-playing the retest of the 153-00 buy signal ended Tuesday morning as it broke higher to probe fresh recovery highs at 153-30. Above 154-02 would confirm a much bigger rally underway, next targeting 155-06.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping back down to or toward 46.00 Tuesday essentially confirms the inflection point is no longer predictive. But a break under 44.90 is still needed to signal a retest of the low’s consolidation range so that a durable bottom can form.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday morning all but seals a bottom. Not trending up intraday does keep alive the potential for reactions down to fill gaps or to test “lower prior highs” before extending higher.
Mid-day Update… Back on-track for highs?
Fresh lows probed too late to gain traction.
This morning’s 2453.25 bias-down signal was pierced, probed and poked all the way down to 2450.00 through the open. But it held through 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2459.75 bias-up signal is in-play.
It almost wasn’t. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under its bias-down target would have invalidated whatever had been triggered at 10:15. In fact, back under 2451.75 signaled a move underway likely targeting the 2448.25 bias-down target. Its test held, and the “no-bias trending” was recovered up to unchanged at 2456.50.
This afternoon’s no-bias environment has room up to its 2458.25 bias-up signal before becoming no-bias trending, too. Breaking out to the “unfinished business above” at 2459.75 and probably higher can begin when the bias environment is lapsing at 2:30. Otherwise, back under 2452.25 would start to signal another downleg underway targeting 2440.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 19, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two more housing sector reports on Wednesday. At the close, we’ll look at whether price action qualified for a Wednesday Expiration setup (WedEX) that can forecast bias into and out of the weekend.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
WedEX
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2460.75 | 2458.25 |
| …would target | 2466.50 | 2464.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2453.50 | 2451.00 |
| …would target | 2448.50 | 2446.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Digging, not deeply, but still digging.
Pre-open fails to attract sponsorship.
I discussed a pullback during the Market Tour that needed to hold 2456.50 to maintain the potential for breaking back to Friday’s high.
It broke. The open was greeted at 2451.50 and slid immediately to 2450.00.
2450.00 is Friday morning’s “lower prior highs” that could have ended the pullback if tested yesterday morning, or Sunday night. That’s no longer likely. Possible, but not likely. In fact, it’s trying. Reacting up from 2450.00 attacked 2455.00. More important, it avoided triggering the 2453.25 bias-down signal.
So, this is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of the 2453.25 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2459.75 bias-up signal is in-play.
Caveat: 2453.25 is still being tested at 10:30. That’s not at all reassuring. An inflection point above it at 2454.25 has been pierced, but by fewer than 3 ticks. So, back under 2452.00 would still be credible for probing lower. And probably also for fulfilling the 2448.25 bias-down target before recovering. Exiting this morning’s bias environment any lower than that would invalidate 2459.75‘s attraction above.