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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday, pre-holiday, thin volume, no trending. What else is new.
The overnight break higher to 2426.75 didn’t originate so late that it would be doomed. Its early retest up to 2428.25 failed to attract new sponsorship to extend. And the reaction down fell back into the overnight range at 2418.50. But no lower, stopping short of filling the gap back down to Thursday’s cash session close. It doesn’t require being filled, but avoiding it set the tone for weak-handed buyers.
The morning bias environment’s exit immediately began retracing back up to the open’s 2428.25 high. Just drifting, which was entirely possible and not at all abnormal for a Friday afternoon. But it had no specific attraction, so it wasn’t signaled. A very late blip-up to 2429.75 originated too late to be reliable for extending, and instead reacted back down sharply to 2419.75.
Ultimately, the session had no predictive value. Neither will Monday’s abbreviated session, but it may still be volatile as was Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
REMINDER: NO SATURDAY REVIEW ON HOLIDAY WEEKENDS. THE chaRTroom WILL RE-OPEN NORMALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT GLOBEX, WHICH TRADES THROUGH MONDAY’S NOON HOUR.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Three consecutive strongly trending sessions had fulfilled a confirmed breakout, and probed above the prior range’s maximum calculable breakout objective. A pullback had become likely regardless of news. The 1.4515 pullback limit held as support to a narrowly ranging session.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having held tests of its 1246.50 bounce limit Thursday, overnight weakness remained vulnerable to resuming Wednesday’s night’s plunge that had stopped $4-5 short of fulfilling the outstanding 1235.00 target below. Dipping down to 1239.00 reacted up to attack the bounce limit, which held.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping further overnight greeted Friday by gapping down, not required to extend lower but still yet to have tested it 16.35 target below intraday. The open’s low attacked 16.50 before bouncing more than 15 cents, with no signal either way.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness briefly pierced Thursday’s low, which itself had held a test of the decline’s 153-28/154-04 target. The setup is almost tantamount to triggering the 154-16 buy signal. Friday’s intraday behavior didn’t suggest it, only ranging narrowly at the target.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down Thursday to having met the extended 45.25 target was retraced overnight back up to Thursday’s 45.45 high, and then higher to attack 46.00. Back under 45.25 would signal the pattern is backing-and-filling down to the recent consolidation to complete a bottom.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Lower lows overnight extended Thursday’s lower resolution that followed its initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the morning’s EIA report. So long as 3.08 isn’t recovered, the pullback has room below to test “lower prior highs” and fill the gap down to 2.95-2.97. In fact, Friday’s dip attacked the range’s upper-end to within 1 cent.
Mid-day Update… Wading game.
Illiquidity isn’t helping matters.
Three dips this morning each stopped at 2418.50. Then each bounced to test or attack 2423.00. Third time was a charm, bouncing up to 2424.25. Its reaction down recovered to a slightly higher high.
Unsurprisingly for a pre-holiday session, there has been no trending and swings have been shallow. A bigger bounce remains possible before resolving down, and there’s no requirement to resolve down today.
But a bigger bounce would likely hold 2427.75 or else run up to 2432.25. Meanwhile, to remains vulnerable to resolving down, anyway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 3, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s “half-day” tends to be the year’s slowest, even compared to post-Thanksgiving Friday. The holiday becomes almost a 5-day weekend. That isn’t preventing a busy calendar, less high-profile than reliably influential to price action.
James Bullard Speaks
4:35 AM ET
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
ES Early close (normal evening re-open)
1:15 PM
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2429.25 | 2426.50 |
| …would target | 2435.00 | 2432.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2423.25 | 2420.50 |
| …would target | 2417.50 | 2414.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.