members-only
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2438.75 | 2436.25 |
| …would target | 2444.00 | 2441.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2431.00 | 2428.50 |
| …would target | 2426.00 | 2423.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s opening checkpoints indicated a lack of sponsorship, at least for the morning. Actually, that didn’t prevent the open’s narrow range from launching a morning surge.
But the sure was contained by the bias-up signal.
That was almost the session’s only semblance of sponsorship, as the afternoon settled into its own narrow range. Thursday’s other trending was during the position-squaring window. Dropping under the afternoon’s 2436.00 sell signal retraced the morning’s surge and closed negative.
The late origin of the afternoon’s drop does undermine its sponsorship as being weak-handed. But the setup is bearish because its retracement undermines the sponsorship of the morning surge’s rally. Unless Friday’s open were gapping up above Thursday afternoon’s 2438.50 high to trigger a “session-long rally,” resuming the decline to the 2415.00 area is likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending the bounce to its 1.1225 is now vulnerable if not also likely to reversing down through 1.1200 to begin signaling a new downleg underway. Closing above 1.1255 would target at least a retest of recent highs.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two days of not extending the confirmed breakout should be enough pause in the decline. Complying with this schedule would require Thursday’s gap up to reverse down immediately and possibly also relentlessly.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying overnight expended all available buying pressure within the context of a two-day pause to resuming the confirmed breakout’s downtrend Thursday.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding the 155-28 pullback limit Wednesday helped to keep alive the 156-24 target, which was tested overnight and into Thursday’s open. It was actually tested to actually to within 1 tick, which suffices.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Thursday off of Wednesday’s new low and avoiding another lower close is a credible start to forming a bottom. Friday would be premature to begin rallying, and would likely be reversed to retest the low.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report triggered a spike down to 2.88 prior lows. Its reaction spiked back up to test the 2.95 buy signal. Triggering it now would complete a durable bottom.
Mid-day Update… Been here, held that.
Retesting a prior high.
This morning’s no-bias signal triggered after a relatively narrow opening range. Breaking higher during the 
no-bias environment held tests of the 2437.50 bias-up signal, as it should.
2437.50 has held through the noon hour and now into the afternoon bias environment, too. It’s also testing 2438.00, which has been relevant resistance. It was Monday’s post-close blip-up. And its retest defined yesterday’s pre-open high.
Now 2438.00 has defined this morning’s high, and it’s still being tested.
It could be probed up to 2441.75. But back under 2436.00 would start to signal this morning’s bounce — and the noon hour’s firming — have attracted stronger sellers to probe under yesterday’s 2428.00 low.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 23, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three more Fed speakers close out the week. Meanwhile two econ reports are staggered post-open, and at least PMI has a track record for influencing price action.
William Dudley speaks
*8:15 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
11:15 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
12:40 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET