members-only

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | June 21, 2017 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Wednesday up to 1.1210 still has room up to 1.1225 while still being only a corrective bounce that remains likely to reverse into a new downleg.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further Wednesday has now corrected enough for the decline to resume, yet to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s third lower close, and its next lower at objective 1235.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming further Wednesday has now corrected enough for the decline to resume, yet to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s third lower close, and its next lower at objective 16.25-16.30.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming slightly overnight stopped short of the 156-24 target before dipping Wednesday morning to touch the 155-28/155-30 pullback limit. Dipping first now allows an RSI comparison to be made while retesting the prior high on the way to fulfilling the target.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Blipping-up Wednesday morning in reaction to EIA barely touched the 44.20-44.90 bounce limit before quickly reversing down under Tuesday’s 43.00low to 42.05.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially firming Wednesday only touched the 2.95 bounce limit whose recovery was unlikely without a more substantial base first forming. Reacting back down to the 2.88 low is a start. Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from the position of strength that would have been reliable for launching a recovery, but rallying through the close would be credible.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only

Mid-day Update… Mudder.

By Rod David | June 21, 2017 - 1:52 pm

Attracted back down to the lows.

The market doesn’t seem very comfortable rallying. That’s neither new nor surprising. This has been the market’s pattern at highs, and also the anticipation of its continued response to highs. Monday was a high, neutralizing the last outstanding structural requirement — a new trend high close. Direction reversed quickly.

This morning’s attempt to extend the overnight recovery wasn’t a new high. But it met the same discomfort that opened the window below. And now the afternoon’s bias-down has triggered under 2433.00.

This morning’s 2430.50 low is being retested. This afternoon’s 2428.50 bias-down target is in-play. It could be probed down to 2425.00 and still be in the context of only a pullback. Anything deeper would be recoverable, but with increasing difficulty. Back above 2436.25

Posted in members-only, Mid-day Update, S&P

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 22, 2017

By Rod David | June 21, 2017 - 12:34 pm

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, and high-profile, but not very influential. One exception is the post-open LEI. And if either pre-open report does get a price reaction, that should be duplicated in reaction to LEI.

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET

*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET

30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

Posted in Bigger Picture, Econ Calendar, members-only

Afternoon Bias

By Rod David | June 21, 2017 - 11:59 am

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)	SPX	ES
Bias-up: above	2440.75	2438.25
…would target	2445.75	2443.50
Bias-down: under	2435.25	2433.00
…would target	2431.00	2428.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN		FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Posted in Bias-parameters, members-only, S&P

Late-morning Update… There’s news.

By Rod David | June 21, 2017 - 11:48 am

Recovery attempt is cut short.

Consolidating at the 2434.50 bias-down signal tried trending up without first blipping-down to trap shorts. Perhaps it could have extended higher, we’ll never know.

Moments after neutralizing the 2440.75 objective to within 3 ticks, price reversed down sharply.

The character of the reversal down suggests that it is not necessarily organic, in reaction to having satisfied the upside attraction. Rather, the catalyst seems to be artificial or external (possibly this). The reversal down unnaturally sliced through the opening range’s “lower prior highs,” ignoring any obligatory bounce on the way down to 2430.50.

Legs caused by an artificial catalyst are more easily absorbed. Its sponsorship is a weak-handed reaction to news. Meanwhile, breaking under the 2434.50 bias-down signal during the no-bias environment is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced at some entirely. That much is being done now, at least up to 2436.00.

Neither of which prevents extending down further or substantially. The overnight probe under yesterday’s lows is no longer isolated to the overnight. This is a problem for the recovery attempt. Entering this afternoon’s bias environment above 2440.00 would suggest that problem is gone.

Posted in members-only, Post-open Review, S&P