members-only
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not at all prohibited from resuming the rally, Thursday’s open was greeted by strength to a fresh highs. But it disappeared quickly as the balance of the session hovered in negative territory. Any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Pulling back to “lower prior highs” proved insufficient to launch a recovery, as Thursday dipped even deeper to 1314.50. The 1327.50 buy signal remains unchanged, although its test becomes likelier.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows Thursday don’t enable lowering the buy signal, but the pattern should include a bounce back up to 15.80 regardless of whether its resistance will hold.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reversal wasn’t rejected overnight as Thursday slid through 145-16 to test the 145-00 last relative low. The intraday lower low doesn’t yet qualify as a minimum probe of the prior low, and a buy signal is unlikely to develop soon in this pattern.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Thursday didn’t exploit Wednesday’s hesitation at the gap-fill, further suggesting the pattern would resolve up.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength enabled recovering after the gap up had reacted down. But the rally has yet improved.
Mid-day Update… Still no trending.
Sloppy and choppy prevail.
The overnight range was contained entirely within yesterday’s range. And now this morning and noon hour have been contained within the overnight range. Price action is getting less volatile, not more so.
Neither of this afternoon’s bias signals was touched — not even attacked — and now this is a no-bias environment. Trending attempted at 2:30 as the bias environment begins lapsing would be credible for extending int the close.
Otherwise without an artificial catalyst, the pattern indicates no sponsorship. It has no requirement to resolve in either direction, or to resolve today at all.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri March 1, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s post-open reports are all reliably influential to price action, which helps to keep things active ahead of the weekend. The noon hour’s Fed speaker will help in that regard, too.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:50 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2795.25 | 2795.50 |
| …would target | 2802.75 | 2803.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2787.25 | 2787.50 |
| …would target | 2780.25 | 2780.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Chop and slop.
Opening volatility fails to agree on a direction.
Recovering from the 2781.75 overnight low go to 2792.50 before the open. Dipping into and out of the open tested the 2788.00 bias-down signal. Its reaction pierced the pre-open high, and dipped back down to the post-open low.
The post-open low’s retest got to 2784.25. Another big bounce managed to overlap the 2788.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Like the open’s round trip, another dip to 2784.25 recovered in time to overlap the 2788.00 in time to trigger noN-bias.
Not bias-down, targeting 2781.50. Not no-bias, targeting an offsetting test of the 2794.00 bias-up signal. But noN-bias, able to fluctuate without intent. Choppy and sloppy. Be careful trading this morning’s pattern, which remains within the range and without an objective or limitation.
It’s not quite a “dry cleaners morning,” but still not for everyone. Meanwhile, here’s a video of this morning’s open when I discussed the alternative strategy of fading inflection points.