members-only
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2402.75 | 2401.00 |
| …would target | 2407.75 | 2406.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2395.75 | 2394.25 |
| …would target | 2390.00 | 2388.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
WARNING: The first 5 minutes of today’s recording is almost inaudible. Raising volume on your computer will work. BE SURE TO LOWER IT AGAIN BEFORE THE 5:30 MARK.
Probing fresh highs at Tuesday’s open was rejected, as has been expected. Rejected immediately, which is much quicker than has been expected. So, maybe that’s not quite the new highs we can expect.
The reversal down was relatively deep, probing under overnight lows. It was also rejected, bouncing to close barely negative.
The “ineffectual pessimism” keeps alive potential for probing higher, still. Unfinished business below as left outstanding at 2392.75, and might alter the course higher — or else enable its bearish resolution.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying significantly overnight easily probed above the gap back to last Friday’s close and the rally’s original 1.1025 target. Friday’s 1.0920 buy signal has already fulfilled its requirement for at least a third higher close. Topping from a new high’s gap up is unlikely.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday was Gold’s turn to outperform, probing above Monday’s highs and above the upper-end of the 1228.00-1236.00 range. Back under 1228.00 would resume the decline.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s shallow gap up remained within Monday’s range, which had trended down intraday from gapping up. Breaking under Monday’s low would launch the next downleg.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initial weakness Tuesday was reversed up sharply through 151-22 to 152-00, whose recoveries through the close would make a recovery increasingly likely to be underway.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly Tuesday between 48.90-49.30 avoided immediately rejecting Monday’s extension of the rally, which suggests the pattern intends to probe higher again, but not necessarily that Wednesday’s EIA is being greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Tuesday probed under the 3.29 sell signal, which would target fresh lows under 3.11. Bouncing first remains possible, potentially to more thoroughly test the rally’s 3.42-3.45 target.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open MBA Apps has no track record for influencing price action, even being the morning’s only report. EIA influences Crude Oil, which could give the market a sympathetic reaction.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2403.25 | 2401.50 |
| …would target | 2407.75 | 2406.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2397.50 | 2396.00 |
| …would target | 2392.75 | 2391.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.