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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2396.75 | 2394.25 |
| …would target | 2403.50 | 2400.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2389.75 | 2386.25 |
| …would target | 2383.50 | 2380.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, BROKE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Retesting Sunday night’s 2403.00 high, at least up to 2405.00 and probably up to 2415.00, had relied on holding this week’s lows as support. At least, retesting the highs without first dipping to 2375.00 or lower. This week’s lows broke sharply down to 2379.00 as the morning’s bias environment was entered. It held a retest while RSIs diverged positively. And it was reversed relentlessly through the afternoon bias environment’s exit.
The open’s gap down had touched 2392.25 before plunging through the morning’s 2391.75 bias-down signal. The intraday recovery touched 2393.25 into the afternoon bias environment lapsing. The balance of the session ranged around 2391.75.
Decisively recovering 2391.75 would have been more bullish. Decisively recovering it upon entering the bias environment would have been even more bullish. Closing back above the week’s prior lows was the least bullish bullishness, remaining in the orbit of Sunday night’s highs. The high’s retest and probe remaining likely near-term so long as Friday’s open isn’t rejecting Thursday’s recovery.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially dipping at Thursday’s open had barely touched the 1.0865 pullback potential before reversing up into positive territory. The dip wasn’t deep, so reversing wasn’t any great feat. It’s more relevant for having neutralize the potential attraction. Still closing above 1.0920 is needed to signal a retest of 1.1025 underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another overnight bounce probed Tuesday night’s high,but without reacting down through Thursday morning. This undermines the momentum of Tuesday’s breakdown, and allows for a bigger bounce to retest the upper-end of 1228.00-1236.00, but the gap outstanding to Monday’s close will require being filled.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A bigger bounce Thursday than before Wednesday’s open was not rejected Thursday. The 15.95 target remains outstanding, regardless. But its test can be delayed if not already back in-play Friday morning.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing a fresh low overnight was recovered at least to fluctuate around Tuesday and Wednesday’s closes. The fresh low close keeps intact the ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs, needing to recover 151-02 to even begin signaling momentum reversing up.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Gapping up slightly Thursday eventually extended to fresh highs at 48.22, now capable of extending the rally so long as 47.65 holds as support. Otherwise, backing-and-filling would be likely.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already gapping up ahead of Thursday’s EIA report reacted favorably, probing above Wednesday’s high. Unless rejected immediately Friday, the next higher objective is 3.42-3.45.
Mid-day Update… Close. So, half a cigar?
Noon hour bounce retraces much of the morning’s plunge.
The open’s 13-point plunge from 2392.00 was retraced to 2390.00 coming out of the noon hour. That triggered the 2388.00 bias-up signal. Already recovering 2383.50 and 2386.00 had suggested the downside momentum had lapsed.
But this morning’s 2391.75 bias-down signal must still be recovered through a relevant window to signal momentum reversing up. So, testing the 2394.25 bias-up target could be bullish, unless its test were reversed back under 2391.75 when the bias environment is lapsing.
Currently, the pre-1:20 high is now being probed, which helps greatly to ensure the bias-up target will become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. There is meanwhile room to test 2386.00 as support before suggesting momentum may be reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 12, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any price reaction to either of Friday’s pre-open reports is likely to repeat in reaction to either post-open report. The noon hour’s Fed speaker is a wild card.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Patrick T. Harker Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET