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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Perhaps it was just defensive posturing ahead of Tuesday morning’s Fed Chair Senate testimony. 
Monday’s slide from its 2814.00 morning high had extended overnight down to 2783.25.
The relatively deep decline didn’t prevent recovering to greet the open back up at 2791.50 support. It was also the morning’s bias-down signal, and holding its support put into play at test of 2802.00. The first attack stopped 2 points short before Powell comments seemed to trigger a retest of 2791.50 by 2 points. But there was just enough time and plenty of volatility to test the objective up to 2803.25 by noon.
A mid-day dip ranged narrowly throughout the afternoon’s no-bias environment. The window’s exit rallied back to morning highs, but only back to morning highs. Tuesday’s last half-hour retraced the mid-day lows, and lower as futures settled back at 2791.50 support.
Just as the afternoon recovery’s steepness left it vulnerable to any hesitation, the rejection’s steepness now leaves it vulnerable to another recovery. A retest of Monday night’s 2783.25 low can’t be dismissed, since its recovery’s ultimate productivity only fluctuated around unchanged. Otherwise, not already probing lower at Wednesday’s open probably will have begun recovering Tuesday’s late drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still firming Tuesday since completing its pullback, but with restrained optimism that suggests a break higher could almost literally explode to the upside.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Backing-and-filling persisted Tuesday, still hovering at or under its 1328.50-1333.00 pullback limit and likely to resolve up and test unfinished business above.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s pullback low held the 15.80 “lower prior highs” whose recovery had confirmed the prior upleg and target in-play. This pullback has no time limit, but there is no lower requirement and no reason to further delay launching a credible rally.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping right back up to the 146-12 buy signal Tuesday extended higher without delay to retest Friday’s high up to 146-27. And unlike Friday’s prior test, indicated to end the day at the upper-end of its range rather than lower. Interim dips have probed relevant support without attracting reinforcements or otherwise confirming their reversal attempts. Repeatedly recovering suggests the pattern still intends to resolve in a new upleg above 147-00.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s extended pullback had probed under the 55.85-56.05 pullback limit. Not confirming with a second consecutive lower close helps to suggest the reaction was only temporary. Closing back above 56.10 as soon as Tuesday remains entirely credible for resuming the rally to fresh recovery highs.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Apr which trades at a 4-cent discount to Mar]… Gapping up Tuesday began retracing immediately, leaving it to a positive close either to fulfill an already confirmed breakout, or else to confirm a borderline breakout and require another positive close to fulfill it.
Mid-day Update… Waiting for round-two.
Morning’s volatility meets afternoon’s no-bias signal.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2791.50 bias-down signal through 10:15 had put into play an offsetting test of the 2802.00 bias-up signal. 
Volatility and false starts wasn’t surprising — already suggested by the pre-open patterns we discussed during the Market Tour.
Opening at 2701.50 and rallied to 2800.00, including an extra tick after 10:15 which usually confirms the bigger picture.
The bigger picture got bigger with a quick dip to 2789.50. It was recovered and reversed as quickly up to 2802.00 during the bias environment. Its retest held and the noon hour was entered back under the morning’s high.
This afternoon’s 2794.00 bias-down signal held as support through 1:20 to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the bias-up signal is not required. Probing under the bias-down signal is unlikely, but probing under it would target 2780.00 and require being retraced. Probing the bias window either way any later could extend in that direction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 27, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Day-two of the Fed chair’s semi-annual Congressional testimony begins the same, with his opening remarks embargoed until the hearing begins. But expect anticipatory trending or knee-jerk reactions to be retraced if their catalysts were discounted already on Tuesday.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell House testimony, day-two
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2801.00 | 2801.25 |
| …would target | 2807.50 | 2807.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2793.50 | 2794.00 |
| …would target | 2788.25 | 2788.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.