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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Volatility knocking.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
NEW LINK! Then, meet in the chaRTroom here For updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up to 2386.00 had already dipped 4-5 points from the overnight high. And the open quickly slid another 5-6 points deeper back under Wednesday’s highs. The noon hour’s brief plunge to 2376.00 neutralized the oversold RSIs left outstanding at Wednesday’s 2375.50 low. All of the plunge was eventually recovered, but only the plunge, as the session went out testing 2386.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging under 2386.00 suddenly triggered a sell signal that intersected at 2385.00, plunging to 2379.00. The catalyst was Crude Oil plunging $1.65 to 43.75. Remarkable as that was, more so was its complete recovery within hours. No fundamental causes for the move are known. And now yesterday’s late high is being probed by several ticks up to 2387.25.
If, then…
Whether or not the 6-7 day correction of last week’s rally finally end depends on today’s open. Recovering 2388.00 yesterday could have reversed momentum up already. Instead, vulnerability to another downleg remains intact up to 2391.00. Rallying 8 points to retrace all of the overnight plunge has created momentum. But there’s still several points of resistance above, and an Employment Situation report ahead. All of which can cut either way, especially when leveraged by Friday Factors as weekend illiquidity approaches. The loose lips of multiple Fed speakers including Yellen are approaching even faster.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour that we have a new chart room address be sure to always login off of the first grade blog post or any other chart-room link and email me right away if you ever have any issues in that regard all right so yesterday we left with uptrending support I have this pivotal uptrending support identify is parallel line to it for this consists of trending someone of the consolidation so it’s parallel line being a cell signal is trigger no reason why it had to be trigger but if the to the trim line and price River to meet Liberty would ensue in fact overnight who incidentally as seemingly innocuous Cross of that uptrending support suddenly proved what was going on when crude oil which will look at it in a moment suddenly plunged poodle plunged about 60-65 well yes cratered as well now well crude oil went to New lows and yes prior Thursday’s low the difference really is irrelevant since there’s been no fundamental cause identified for the crude oil drop which is better Trace entirely and get a look at that in a minute so was yes yes was retraced entirely as well lot of buying pressure expended just to retrieve and that could be problematic for recovering today on the one hand he have 2386 yesterday’s is it morning time with you also was recovered by a Plunge 2388 which is resistance anyway and then all the way up to 2391 which actually 2391 or 9075 doesn’t have any bears reason to be tested if we’re headed to 9075 whether it’s on that late or not probably it’s because the market is going to be pushing a higher but meanwhile lot of pressure was expended lot out of short-term aggressive buyers were attracted into the market by smelling his blood in the water that buying pressure is now satisfied maybe a head’s a little bit higher it’s already piercing is his house back up that basically we can won’t be available or will be available to the open to hear this it’s not probably get out of here the upside and all that can be left behind enough to the upside of course we’ve got the employment situation report that’s going to try preventing that with God and that’s at 8:30 by the way we’ve got and that’s the only a couple we’ve got a lot of fed speakers lined up including the Ellen alright so downside is entirely plausible to resume if we were to look at a new cell signal just keeping it on the spelling correction like pattern to 2384 would be kind of an outlier but I’m 2384 were crossed if it were you know we may not actually break lower what is 2384 were broken then probably already heading down aggressively there’s that much room in other words to death and not really but not yet Alright by the way any questions please in the trim overnight down here maybe that other than actually play rejecting it says drop next puts into play 1206 1211 alright so silver trying to at least slow it’s rated set but it’s got a lower lower lower levels outstanding as well Long Pond which Gap damn that’s no way to resume Trend by the way but gap down not from within the range it’s been a lot of time pressure that’s truly miss just when you need it most to break through not only a prior extreme but what was calculable support the target tested thoroughly tested yesterday didn’t actually rejected to test went out testing it so I can’t really say that about him as in at this point until we see another session of ranging here or backing and filling or whatever it does there’s no new calculation other than 15218 has a bicycle and if that’s not a low there’s another point below from here here’s that crude oil do with yesterday had already dropped quite a bit gapping down trending down throughout remaining down testing a big big supporter of big Target of this pattern but not rejecting it and that’s the problem with not rejecting a Target once tested instead of holding it if it had wanted to introduce could have recovered today it’s still good with her back about 4617 despite having plunged overnight here is that overtime plunge coincide exactly with the S down to 4376 and then recovering and tirely I get a lot of buying pressure expended just to get that done and natural gas CIA reports today I’m sorry you got a big reaction more of the jerk reaction never recovered nothing really bullish about it we still got the same pattern same objective for fresh lives while it’s in the recording here so I can get it sent out and I will see you in the chart ruler I don’t forget we got a Saturday review tomorrow good luck today
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2392.75 | 2389.00 |
| …would target | 2398.25 | 2394.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2385.75 | 2382.00 |
| …would target | 2380.25 | 2376.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did Thursday’s brief plunge to 2376.00 finally end the 6-7 day correction of last week’s rally? Its recovery back above the range’s lower-end didn’t extend above 2388.00. Wednesday’s brief plunge to 2375.50 resolved similarly, and didn’t end the correction.
Although Thursday’s low neutralized the requirement to retest Wednesday’s oversold RSIs, there are still attractions to it. Attractions that remain in-play without closing above 2388.00. Attractions that would be neutralized by gapping up above 2391.00.
Thursday’s open was offered a similar proposition, and tried exploiting it, but its gap up failed. At least Friday Factors of the weekend’s approaching illiquidity could leverage gapping up into a short-squeeze back to recent highs. And at least the weeks’ global liquidity challenges could prevent a retest of the week’s lows from extending.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday finally resolved the pattern’s likely probe higher, with potential for extending to 1.1025 before being able to reverse down.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having missed the potential for bouncing from 1245.00, Wednesday night slid to test the upper-end of 1228.00-1236. Extending sharply lower through Thursday morning tested the range’s lower-end to 1225.70. The range must be recovered through two consecutive closes before suggesting a bottom is forming. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 1206.00-1211.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The Up/Down-crash’s resolution down under 16.80 extended down sharply Thursday morning to test 16.20, targeting 15.95. Bounces meanwhile should peak before testing “higher prior lows” at 16.50.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Thursday to what had been the decline’s 152-08 bounce limit extended to probe the decline’s 150-20 target down to 151-11. Still testing the decline’s original target or bouncing off of it would form a bottom upon closing above 152-18. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 150-22.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Breaking sharply lower Thursday to fresh trend lows at 45.40 created potential for a reversal setup that would trigger by closing at least back above 45.60 and preferably also above 46.15. A corrective bounce would target 47.65.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of weakness. Its knee-jerk reaction was muted, but price weakened intraday back to Tuesday’s lows, keeping in-play the attraction to fresh lows under 3.11.
Mid-day Update… A better try.
Post-open dip extends, temporarily.
The overnight rally to 2390.75 had been retraced to open at yesterday’s late 2386.00 high. Dipping from there attacked 2381.00 where yesterday’s FOMC statement had been greeted. The balance of the morning ranged sideways.
Plunging into the noon hour attacked yesterday’s 2375.50 to within 2 ticks. Just coming to within 3 ticks has neutralized the attraction to yesterday’s oversold RSIs. But it’s far from optimal, since the low’s “V” bottom is often retested. And that low also has room to be probed down to 2374.00 and 2371.50.
Bouncing 8 points slipped back only enough to attack this afternoon’s 2381.75 bias-down signal to within 1 tick at 1:20. It continued holding at 1:30. No-bias triggered.
No-bias isn’t preventing probing under the bias-down signal. Back above 2384.25 would signal a bigger bounce underway. Otherwise, whether during the no-bias environment or after it, there remains potential to retest this week’s lows.