members-only
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The bounce into Wednesday afternoon was retraced Thursday back down to Wednesday’s lows, still hovering above the 1.0860 sell signal.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close blip-down was only attacked by Thursday morning’s dip to 1262.00, which also reacted up to attempt forming a bottom to the pullback.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The relentless selling produced a fresh low Thursday, which maintains the degree of difficulty to recovering. But the slide can still qualify as only a correction, so long as Friday avoids a fresh low close.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still fluctuating Thursday at or within Wednesday’s range continued to suggest a fresh low remains likely down to 151-22 before a recovery would be credible.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday afternoon’s dip extended down overnight and Thursday morning, retesting the recent bottoming attempt’s lows. Closing above 50.00 before the weekend would resuscitate the bottoming pattern.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Weakness into and out of Thursday’s EIA report was at least in-line with the report not being greeted from a position of strength. But at least an eventual third lower close remains outstanding.
Mid-day Update… Aaaand, we’re back.
Corrective dip rallies hard off its target.
The first hour’s choppy ranging around 2385.00 had avoided triggering the 2388.00 bias-up signal. It had also avoided touching bias-up.
An offsetting test of the 2380.25 bias-down signal wasn’t required.
But it was tested anyway. A single plunge pierced it by 3 ticks. It was probed by twice that after an interim bounce failed.
RSIs diverged positively into the lower low, just before noon. Trending up relentlessly through the noon hour probed the morning’s high. It peaked upon touching this afternoon’s 2388.75 bias-up target.
Meeting the target without renewing the bias-up signal doesn’t change that this is a bias-up environment. Extending higher is possible. Back under 2386.00 would signal at least a corrective dip targeting a retest of the 2383.75 bias-up signal.
Any deeper would extend the corrective pullback. Even if the correction has ended already, nothing requires resuming the rally today.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 28, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar isn’t light, but it’s remarkably heavy with influential and high-profile items. Especially the post-open PMI which usually triggers a reaction several minutes earlier as its institutional clients get the data early. That reaction tends to repeat when released publicly, and also to inform the reaction to the later report. Two Fed speakers keep Friday afternoon active.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Lael Brainard Speaks
1:15 PM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2387.50 | 2383.75 |
| …would target | 2392.50 | 2388.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2381.75 | 2378.00 |
| …would target | 2376.75 | 2373.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Optimism too restrained.
Pre-open bounce exits the open flat.
Surging into the ECB announcement had probed positive territory for the first time overnight. But only to 2386.50 resistance. Choppy ranging was supported by 2383.25 into and out of the open.
Blipping-up into the 10:15 bias timing window attacked the 2388.00 bias-up signal to within 2-3 ticks. Bias-up wasn’t touched, let alone triggered.
Not touching the bias-up signal before signaling no-bias means no offsetting test of the 2380.25 bias-down signal is required. But this isn’t a “dry cleaners” morning, since price is essentially at the range’s upper-end, with room down to retest the overnight lows.
Hovering in positive territory through the morning could break higher when the bias environment lapses at 11:30-noon. Meanwhile, drifting back to overnight lows is possible.