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Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/23/19) …Safety off.
Recent intraday volatility has not been noise. Recent probes beyond the prior session’s range haven’t been timid, and yet haven’t been immediately maintained. All while the trend ekes out its highest recovery levels, and reversal setups begin forming. A string of intraday opportunities seems to be lurking, with multi-multi-point intraday moves, and multiple intraday reversals.
Something seems to be spooking the game, while heavier and heavier thuds are starting to shake the ground. This week we apply the specific analysis of price action to label the above characterizations and to reach its conclusion. Many of the setups we cover are repeated often in the market, if not always ahead of such potentially wide-ranging windows.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
MRK, FB, LLY, PLNT, STMP
transcript
—————– (02/23/2019 09:32) —————–
Bill G: gm
Mark G: gm
ljr iPad: gm
—————– (02/23/2019 09:35) —————–
jp: gm
—————– (02/23/2019 10:05) —————–
Mark G: 2815-2820 area could also server as resistance to sling shot down to 2730?
Mark G: serve
—————– (02/23/2019 10:19) —————–
Mark G: MRK
ljr iPad: FB fill gap below?
ljr iPad: LLY
Mark G: Volume is declining
—————– (02/23/2019 10:22) —————–
Mark G: can get to 90?
—————– (02/23/2019 10:24) —————–
ljr iPad: PLNT
—————– (02/23/2019 10:31) —————–
ljr iPad: just looking higher obj
—————– (02/23/2019 10:34) —————–
ljr iPad: STMP – thoughts on it…going lower?
—————– (02/23/2019 10:37) —————–
ljr iPad: plnt might have earnings next week
—————– (02/23/2019 10:41) —————–
ljr iPad: sorry don’t know yet
—————– (02/23/2019 10:43) —————–
Mark G: thx much
ljr iPad: just stmp
Bill G: thanks
ljr iPad: cancelled us post contract
—————– (02/23/2019 10:47) —————–
ljr iPad: actually u think lower lows in future
—————– (02/23/2019 10:50) —————–
ljr iPad: thanks.
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2797.00 | 2796.75 |
| …would target | 2804.00 | 2803.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2785.00 | 2785.00 |
| …would target | 2778.00 | 2778.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday night’s rally deposited the market at the door of invalidating the bearish Globex-flip setup, but only stumbled through. I needed either a gap up above 2788.00 or simply exiting the open above 2784.50 to signal the Globex-flip wouldn’t be influential. Neither was recovered until too late to be predictive. And they were recovered on the way to fresh recovery highs at 2794.50.
Fresh intraday recovery highs. Wednesday night’s 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is higher, which disqualifies Friday’s close from being a new trend extreme. That would have required an eventual higher close. But having recovered into the orbit of 2798.00 for the first time since already leaving it before Thursday’s open, its retest should be imminent.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s Isolation setup is in jeopardy. It had formed by not probing back above Wednesday’s high intraday. It would remain intact by not closing back above Wednesday’s high — which Friday did. The close’s probe above Wednesday’s high began after entering the position-squaring window, so it could be credibly reinstated by trending back down through Monday morning, perhaps attracted to oversold RSIs at Friday afternoon’s 2781.25 low
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s pullback from Tuesday’s confirmed breakout leaves no reason to extend the pullback any deeper, or to further delay resuming the recovery effort. Friday did not extend any deeper, but also has not resumed the rally, so almost any initial strength coming out of the weekend would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Friday was still testing the 1328.50-1333.00 pullback limit, and not yet rallying out of it to any degree that would be reliable for resuming the rally.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s test of “lower prior highs” under 15.80 was reversed back up through the 15.95 buy signal Friday to suggest the recent high’s retest is now underway.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap down to and through 146-04 had stopped short of breaking support at 145-16, which would have confirmed the reversal. The opportunity to confirm the reversal wasn’t exploited as Friday’s open gapped back up above the 146-12 buy signal and tested Wednesday’s 146-21 close.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Retesting recent highs overnight and into Friday’s open doesn’t prevent fluctuating back down to test the 55.85-56.05 pullback limit before extending the rally. The rally meanwhile remains likely to resume at some point.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 2.70 buy signal was barely pierced going into the weekend, but at least a new low was avoided on a Friday for the second consecutive week to add credibility to a bottom forming.