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Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 14, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s econ reports are high-profile, but only PPI is reliably influential to price action. Still, three reports released simultaneously can trigger volatility. The late-morning Fed speaker can be influential, too.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
11:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2757.50 | 2757.00 |
| …would target | 2764.25 | 2763.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2749.25 | 2748.75 |
| …would target | 2741.25 | 2740.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up.
Overnight high’s retest isn’t rejected.
The complexity of last night’s probe above Tuesday’s highs up to 2757.00 had formed a “new Globex trend extreme” which requires intraday retest, and is often retested the same day. 
Recovering 2753.00 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would target 2757.00, if not also higher. It was probed up to 2762.00.
Reacting down to attack 2753.00 only overlapped the 2755.00 bias-up target through the 10:15 bias timing window. This avoided renewing the bias-up signal. It’s still a bias-up environment, but not bias-up renewed, which would have added a degree of confidence in extending higher. That hasn’t prevented at least trying to resume the rally, now testing 2761.00.
The bigger picture bear market rally limitation requires closing back under 2757.00 and preferably also under 2751.00. Topping requires a retest of the 2753.00 opening print after a post-open dip under Tuesday’s highs. Reversing the trend down requires at least closing negative under 2743.50. Today’s WedEX should be a passive bearish setup to reflect an unsustainable bullish sentiment.
Meanwhile, the intraday and bigger picture each allow extending higher. Maintaining 2757.00‘s recovery through the bias environment exit would next target 2769.00. Back under 2755.00 at any time would start putting into play a dip back into yesterday’s range.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Big targets met, holding.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
An overnight rally that had far exceeded its bias-up parameters greeted Tuesday’s open at its 2727.75 renewed bias-up target. The rally resumed with little delay, and extended sharply higher to test its next objective at 2743.50 soon after noon. The bias environment’s probe higher up to 2748.00 was retraced to end the day still testing 2743.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
The rally hardly delayed resuming, and suddenly spiked up 10 points to attack 2756.00. Its reaction down was supported by 2751.00 as price eked its way back up through midnight to eventually touch 2757.00. There was complexity, creating a “new Globex trend extreme” that is all but required to be retested intraday. Trending back down into and out of Europe’s opens has pierced 1 point under yesterday’s 2747.75 high as support, reacting up to 2751.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
It’s important to note how this current upleg has unfolded: Closing above 2721.00 for its second consecutive session last Tuesday had established that one more higher target was in-play for the bear market rally — 2751.00, with room for noise up to 2757.00. Rather than extend, the rally immediately began retracing, resting on the laurels of a higher attraction to rescue it. Pullback objectives were met down to 2708.00-2709.00 and 2788.00-2690.00, and even exceeded to the next lower support at 2681.00-2682.00 Friday morning before the rally resumed. And it resumed without correction on the way to meeting its 2751.00 and 2757.00 targets overnight. Their Intraday test is preferable, and likely, while holding above yesterday’s range. Reversing back under yesterday’s last relative lows at 2741.50 and 2738.75 would start reversing the trend back down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2751.00 would be likely to trigger the 2748.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2743.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2749.75 | 2748.75 |
| …would target | 2756.00 | 2755.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2739.75 | 2739.00 |
| …would target | 2733.75 | 2733.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.