Bias-parameters
Bias-up target met?
[pay]The ESu 1292’25 bias-up target was met within 1 tick. That’s close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades, but not necessarily for us. The three chief reasons for expecting its eventual test are:
- The actual gap back to last Friday’s close is still 2 ticks higher, and there’s no reason to come this close without actually filling it.
- The pre-open high is a “new Globex trend extreme” that is almost historically mandated to be retested during regular trading hours.
- 1-min RSI has corrected considerably while price treaded water, creating a sort of vacuum that should suck price higher.
The 1288’00-1288’50 area is a likely pullback candidate to resume the rally. The high/target/gap test could extend higher above last week’s 1293’00-1294’00 highs, and then potentially higher through tomorrow’s open. But acting toppy at this morning’s open would have us looking instead for short entries.
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1285 | 1285’00 |
| …would target | 1292.25 | 1292’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1277.50 | 1277’50 |
| …would target | 1271.50 | 1271’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-up, Bias-up target met within 1 tick | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target met, and held… for now.
[pay]The 1283’50 bias-up target was met during the noon hour. A pullback tested 1281’00 as support during 1:20-1:30, and breaking it now would trigger a pullback with potential down to 1276’00. Waiting until the bias-up environment begins lapsing in 45-50 minutes would make a pullback likelier to become trend reversal. But if buyers can control the price action then, one objective of the rally would be filling the gap back to Friday’s 1292’50 close.
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Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1276.75 | 1276’75 |
| …would target | 1283.50 | 1283’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1273.75 | 1273’75 |
| …would target | 1267.25 | 1267’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target met anyway.
[pay]The Durable Goods reaction to higher highs was retraced deeply enough and for long enough to signal No-bias at 10:15. Although this made a test of the 1267’25 bias-down signal likely, that was invalidated when the 1274’75 bias-up signal was recovered through 10:30.
Similar to yesterday’s last-minute late bias-up, the bias-up target was met quickly – up to 1279’75. And similar to yesterday’s late signal, the breakout is very vulnerable to being retraced. Already the 1276’50 overnight high is being tested as support.
Negatively diverging technicals on a bounce back to 1278’50-1278’75 would be bearish. It would also help to run out the clock on this morning’s failed No-bias environment so that trending can resume. Entering and/or exiting the noon hour back under the bias-up signal would also be bearish.
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