Bias-parameters
Bias-down target in-play.
[pay]The ESu 1299’75 bias-down signal was still being tested at the 10:15 timing window. A break extended down to new relative lows before hesitating, as is appropriate for a late bias-down signal, but not until slicing through the 1296’00 origin of yesterday morning’s doomed No-bias rally.
The hesitation started 3 ticks above the 1293’50 bias-down target which has yet to be met, and remains targeted. Bounces should meanwhile hold the briefest test of 1297’50, if there is any bounce at all. At this stage, I expect the bias-down target to give way somehow as well, on the way to 1287’00-1288’00.
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1305.25 | 1305’25 |
| …would target | 1312.25 | 1312’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1299.75 | 1299’75 |
| …would target | 1293.50 | 1293’50 |
| Signal status: Late bias-down | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1306.50 | 1306’50 |
| …would target | 1312.50 | 1312’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1302 | 1302’00 |
| …would target | 1296 | 1296’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up | FAQ | |
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No-bias trending. And trending, and trending…
[pay]A long-entry signal required S&Ps to do more work down in the low 1290‘s since a No-bias signal had triggered. The timing didn’t prevent the earlier gains from extending higher to the 1306’00 bias-up target.
The no-bias rally still requires a retracement back to its 1296’00 origin, signaled under 1302’00.The 1298’00 bias-up signal would be likely to offer some support on the way down. And the next lower target would be this morning’s original 1293’00 long-entry parameter.
There is no requirement to trend higher in this pattern, but not reversing down by tomorrow’s open would make any decline very unlikely before Wednesday afternoon – including the no-bias rally’s retracement.
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1298 | 1298’00 |
| …would target | 1306 | 1306’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1288 | 1288’00 |
| …would target | 1281 | 1281’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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