Bias-parameters
No-bias target.
[pay]A surge to ESu 1291’75 has fulfilled targets. Overbought 3-minute RSI at the high requires its retest following a pullback. I have no active higher targets, and will monitor for long-entry parameters in case of a deep enough pullback. I probably won’t be looking aggressively for a short-entry parameter until a pullback does retest the high.
The rally could extend higher (1303’00, anyone?), and if still long expecting that, pullbacks should recover quickly from any dip to 1288’00-1289’00 to avoid sellers gaining traction.
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No-bias highs.
[pay]S&Ps did rally to higher highs at ESu 1288’00 despite the move originating during a no-bias environment. With no particular timing – except sooner, rather than later – no-bias trending is required to be retraced entirely back to its 1:20 origin, and often through it. This is 1283’00, and back under 1285’50 would signal the move underway. Otherwise, whether or not sustainable, this leg is targeting the 1291’00-1292’00 area.
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No-bias doesn’t mean buyers won’t try.
[pay]The ESu 1284’25 bias-up signal had clearly held its test through the 1:20 timing window, signaling No-bias through the next hour. Trending is unlikely to be attempted in this environment, and trending attempts are unlikely to succeed.
Of course, a failed probe of higher highs would be in-line with the template being tracked. And higher highs during a no-bias environment would be likely to fail. So the possibility can’t be discounted. Two tests of the bias-up signal have peaked at 1285’00 and 1285’50, so I would consider entering long above either.
The overnight high or noon hour high might suffice for being the failed probe, and we’ll look at that possibility if the afternoon activity is acting poorly. A failed probe of higher highs could still come later this week, and today’s session could still range sideways through the close.
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Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1285 | 1284’25 |
| …would target | 1291.50 | 1290’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1278.75 | 1278’00 |
| …would target | 1274.50 | 1273’75 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested bias-up signal | FAQ | |
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Still probing the bias-down target.
[pay]The cash session’s open probed briefly under the ESu 1278’00 bias-down target, which pretty much held as support through 10:15. A lower low was probed after 10:30, too inappropriate to rely upon extending down to a lower low at 1274’50 (there’s no signal otherwise, but this one isn’t clear). Regardless, this morning is a bias-down environment.
Back above 1278’00 coming out of the bias-down environment at 11:30 would be bullish for a recovery into positive territory. Having gapped down from yesterday’s rally, a close in positive territory could be bullish. But, in-line with the pullback scenario described in today’s Trading Plan, an intraday probe of positive territory that reverses to close negative would be bearish.
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