Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1343.75 | 1346’25 |
| …would target | 1350 | 1352’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1337.75 | 1340’25 |
| …would target | 1327 | 1329’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
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No-bias.
[pay]S&Ps have only ranged sideways off of session highs since probing this morning’s bias-up target. This afternoon’s ESm 1348’50 bias-down signal is only 2 ticks higher than this morning’s, and it was still being tested when the 1:20 timing window opened. Sellers didn’t take control during the next 10 minutes before the window slammed shut.
That means the next hour is a no-bias environment. Trending is unlikely to be attempted, and trending that is attempted is likely to be retraced entirely. Parameters remain valid, but their likelihood is diminished. Speculative traders willing to tolerate more whipsaw potential could still play in this environment. Traders looking for more predictability would consider waiting another hour until the no-bias environment begins lapsing.
So, under 1347’00 (the lowest probe of the bias-down signal tests) could still trigger a drop to the 1341’00 bias-down target, maybe even fill the gap back to yesterday’s 1338’00 close. But the odds of success are lower, and the odds of retracing any success are higher.
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1352.75 | 1353’00 |
| …would target | 1357.25 | 1357’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1348.25 | 1348’50 |
| …would target | 1340.75 | 1341’00 |
| Signal status: Still testing bias-down signal, tested bias-up | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target met.
[pay]S&Ps extended higher with hardly any pause after the open gapped up above yesterday morning’s ESu 1342’50 lows. The 1353’00 bias-up target was met within 1 tick, then probed by 2-3 points. MACD & RSI deteriorated throughout, diverging negatively on the last two probes.
Back under 1350’00 would target a retracement back down to yesterday morning’s lows, if not also down to the 1341’00 bias-down signal. And why not fill the gap back to yesterday’s close while in the neighborhood, too.
Actually, that wasn’t a rhetorical question. The reason why not to be greedy on a pullback – assuming there is one – is because of so much optimism still pervasive in the market. I detailed it previously in today’s Trading Plan. Since then, the open has gapped up. Gapped up, from a new low. I’m calling that the “poster child of optimism.” Exiting the 10:15 timing window with a bias-up signal intact is only helping to refuel sellers.
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1346 | 1348’00 |
| …would target | 1351 | 1353’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1339 | 1341’00 |
| …would target | 1332 | 1334’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met THE FRONT-MONTH ROLLS TO SEP (U) AT TODAY’S OPEN |
FAQ | |
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