Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1360.75 | 1361’00 |
| …would target | 1365.25 | 1365’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1354.50 | 1354’75 |
| …would target | 1347.75 | 1348’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
[/pay]
No bias.
[pay]The extensive testing of yesterday’s lows was recovered back above the ESm 1353’00 bias-down signal through the open’s first half-hour. Then a surge attacked the 1360’00 bias-up signal before 10:15. The timing was close enough to allow buyers an extra 15 minutes to prove their case by extending higher. But an extra point was retraced through 10:30 to confirm another hour of a no-bias environment.
This makes trending unlikely to be attempted, while any trending attempted will likely be retraced entirely. In other words, it’s all just noise around the 1359’25 print of 10:15 until at least the bottom of the hour, so extremes can probably be faded in anticipation of a reversal back into the range.
Despite all of the overnight instance of optimism (bouncing 10 points from the new low, then stopping short of probing the low), it will be difficult to resume the decline without filling the gap back to yesterday’s 1363’50 close, unless the noon hour is entered back under 1352’00-1353’00.
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1359.75 | 1360’00 |
| …would target | 1363.75 | 1364’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1352.75 | 1353’00 |
| …would target | 1342 | 1342’25 |
| Signal status: Tested bias-down signal then bias-up | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Bias-down siganled.
[pay]The noon hour was entered at the lower-end of this morning’s ESm 1366’00-1368’00 bounce target, and exited at the upper-end. Then S&Ps began tumbling, eventually down to 1357’25 where last night’s Globex low was pierced by 1 tick. The bias-down signal’s break has extended far enough that the 1362’00 signal shouldn’t be recovered
The bias-down target is another point lower, but I would consider tightening my stop there instead of covering, because of the bias-down environment. One concern to being short at all is that a bounce just tested two prior lows as resistance (the knee-jerk reaction to Lehman’s news pre-open, and the post-open dip’s low), and maintained their recovery through 1:30. This suggests sellers don’t have traction. By the same token, overcoming this to print new lows could be bearish enough to extend even lower.
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1367.75 | 1368’00 |
| …would target | 1372.75 | 1373’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1361.75 | 1362’00 |
| …would target | 1356.25 | 1356’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ | |
[/pay]