Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1389.25 | 1389’50 |
| …would target | 1394.50 | 1394’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1383.50 | 1383’75 |
| …would target | 1378 | 1378’25 |
| Signal status: testing Bias-down | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target tested.
[pay]The ESm 1385’00 bias-up target didn’t require a retest because the bias-up signal didn’t trigger. Another pattern was in-play that targeted 1383’00 and 1384’50. All have been met by a rally still underway testing 1387’00, retracing essentially all of yesterday’s rumor-induced plunge.
This places S&Ps right back in the middle of the area I highlighted here in a chart yesterday morning, showing previous attacks having resolved down. Back under 1384’25 would signal momentum reversing down again. Since today’s rally originated during a no-bias environment, its complete retracement back to 1378’50 is required. Further, I suspect, if given the opportunity.[/pay]
Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1379.75 | 1380’00 |
| …would target | 1384.75 | 1385’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1374.75 | 1375’00 |
| …would target | 1363.25 | 1363’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ |
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Bias-down target met, and that’s the bullish part.
[pay]The afternoon’s bias-down signal at ESm 1387’00 had just been tested at the noon hour’s end, and not yet recovered at 1:20, then broken hard through the bottom of the hour. The 1380’00 bias-down target was met at the bottom of the hour, and a lower low at 1372’50 was met soon after.
The low touched prior lows from Memorial Day weekend and an interim bounce has fallen back to the low again – but no lower – and now the interim high is being tested. This bounce (both bounces) is only obligatory in deference to this area having held before. Its eventual break is all but assured.
Normally that might simply be bearish. But the slope of this downleg concerns me, and the possible measurement of the next downleg to follow. Bounces from here should hold 1378’00 as resistance. Under 1373’00 could trigger much more than a drop to 1370’00.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1393 | 1393’25 |
| …would target | 1399.25 | 1399’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1386.75 | 1387’00 |
| …would target | 1379.75 | 1380’00 |
| Signal status: late Bias-down | FAQ | |
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