Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1401.25 | 1401’50 |
| …would target | 1407.75 | 1408’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1394.25 | 1394’50 |
| …would target | 1385.25 | 1385’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested bias-up | FAQ | |
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Bias? A little.
[pay]The 1:20-1:30 window opened with S&Ps hovering just 1 tick above the ESm 1402’75 bias-up signal, and the window’s close is threatening to be 2 ticks below. This is after the 1-minute MACD & RSI diverged negatively into the second touch of 1405’50, while the 3-minute made lower highs to confirm. In fact, the 1-minute RSI triggered a sell signal at the highs.
So, why am I not bearish? Because the bias-up signal might still trigger? No, because even if it does, I can’t discount the possibility for one more momentary higher high. That’s the failure I want to short aggressively – not a questionable no-bias signal.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1402.50 | 1402’75 |
| …would target | 1407.75 | 1408’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1397.25 | 1397’50 |
| …would target | 1392 | 1392’25 |
| Signal status: only 1 tick above bias-up signal | FAQ | |
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No-bias, i.e. no sustainable gain.
[pay]The pre-open decline did produce a bounce, up 7 points to ESm 1393’75, 1 point above the bias-up signal. The bounce was as steep as the pre-open drop, and it wasn’t any more sustainable. Another attack on the 1388’00 bias-down signal was underway when the 10:15 timing window triggered no-bias. That means trending is unlikely this morning, and any trending attempted this morning would likely be retraced.
That didn’t stop another bounce up to 1393’75, but it will need to be exceeded through 10:30 to trigger any sort of buy signal. Its likely target would be the 1396’25 overnight high, and possibly the 1401’50 bias-up target. Regardless of the eventual gain (if any), the origin’s no-bias timing would make its complete retracement likely.[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1392.50 | 1392’75 |
| …would target | 1401.25 | 1401’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1387.25 | 1388’00 |
| …would target | 1382.25 | 1382’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested both signals | FAQ | |
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