Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1411.75 | 1412’75 |
| …would target | 1416.50 | 1417’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1405.50 | 1406’50 |
| …would target | 1399 | 1400’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias (still testing bias-down signal) | FAQ | |
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Bias-down signaled, twice.
[pay]Buyer appeared to retake control soon after the cash session open, surging up 7 points from a dip to ESm 1408’25. A 4-point dip from there has also recovered, but RSI did not become overbought on either high, which questions whether the price strength has any underpinnings capable of pushing price higher. The 10:15 timing window’s exit was still testing the 1414’25 bias-down signal, and not too successfully. If not recovered through 10:30 this would make a retest of the bias-down target possible, or at least another hour of ranging in negative territory.[/pay]
Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1416.50 | 1417’50 |
| …would target | 1423.50 | 1424’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1413.25 | 1414’25 |
| …would target | 1408.50 | 1409’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-down (target met overnight) | FAQ | |
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Bias-down target met.
[pay]The pullback continued through the noon hour and then accelerated at 1:00, in time for the ESm 1407’00 bias-down target to be tested twice just before the 1:20 timing window. MACD & RSI diverged positively on the second test, so back above the 1408’75 interim high would signal that selling was done.
It’s still a bias-down environment for the next hour regardless, so any bounce would have difficulty extending above yesterday’s highs in the 1410’50 area. But above there later this afternoon should have a clear shot back up to 1416’25-1417’25. It had better. Otherwise this would be the week’s second new high intraday that was rejected to close back under a prior high. While that would be in-line with the semi-expectation for this to be a brief rally before resuming the bear market decline, the second rejection would make the next downleg very steep.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1416.25 | 1417’25 |
| …would target | 1421.50 | 1422’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1411 | 1412’00 |
| …would target | 1406 | 1407’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met | FAQ | |
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