Bias-parameters
Bias-up target met.
[pay]The overnight dip back into Tuesday’s range helped to refuel buyers ahead of this morning’s econ reports. The ESm 1343’00 bias-up signal had been exceeded already. A steep reaction to CPI was quickly absorbed by a recovery that just fulfilled the 1351’00 bias-up target. Pullbacks need to be extremely short and shallow to maintain the rally’s momentum, preferably no lower than 1350’00. But considering all the resistance now being tested from prior sessions (last Wednesday’s low and last Friday’s high), there isn’t much reason to remain long.
The bias-down signal is too far below to use as a sell signal (which is what a bias-up signal becomes when a test of its target is retraced by 10:15am ET). But back under 1347’00 would signal a drop back to the 1343’00 bias-up signal.[/pay]
Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1341.50 | 1343’00 |
| …would target | 1349.50 | 1351’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1334.50 | 1336’00 |
| …would target | 1327.50 | 1329’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met | FAQ |
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1330.50 | 1332’00 |
| …would target | 1336.50 | 1338’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1324 | 1325’50 |
| …would target | 1315 | 1316’50 |
| Signal status: testing bias-up signal | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1333.25 | 1334’75 |
| …would target | 1340.50 | 1342’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1329.25 | 1330’75 |
| …would target | 1324 | 1325’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias, held test of bias-up signal | FAQ | |
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Late rejection of the bias-up signal?
[pay]The noon hour’s new session high reached within 1 point of the bias-up target before falling back under the morning’s highs. S&Ps were back under the morning’s highs at 1:20, but not yet back under the ESm 1333’25 bias-up signal – also reversing under the bias-up signal through 1:30 would invalidate it, and I’m already suspicious of any buy signal prior to retesting the overnight “new Globex trend extreme.” But traders wanting to give a buy signal the benefit of the doubt might also want to consider the 1333’25 bias-up signal as a stop.
If the bias-up signal can hold, then a detour to 1338’50 might also reach 1342’00. Otherwise, back under 1333’25 through 1:30 could quickly slide back to overnight lows.[/pay]