Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1366.50 | 1368’25 |
| …would target | 1374 | 1375’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1362.25 | 1364’00 |
| …would target | 1357.25 | 1359’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested bias-down | FAQ | |
[/pay]
No-bias.
[pay]S&Ps bounced back above the ESm 1352’50 bias-down signal after probing the overnight lows, and held the recovery long enough to signal No-bias. Assuming this persists through 10:30, is unlikely to be attempted this morning. It also means that trending attempts would likely be retraced entirely.
What a great opportunity for a bull market to let the 1347’50 target be tested, while sellers would be unlikely to gain traction for a new downleg. And buyers could gain traction to possibly recover yesterday’s close under 1365’00, invalidating its sell signal. The reward for that accomplishment would be nothing short of a new upleg targeting at least 1410’00. And it would likely begin with a substantial rally this afternoon.
But first things, first. S&Ps are trying again to recover above yesterday’s cash session close, now within 1 point of this morning’s 1359’50 bias-up signal. Back under 1354’00-1356’00 would be tough, but it would also be a big step toward a more realistic probe of the lows, and a more meaningful recovery. Its delay would only make the eventual break more likely to resume the sell signal’s downleg.[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1357.75 | 1359’50 |
| …would target | 1365.25 | 1367’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1350.75 | 1352’50 |
| …would target | 1345.75 | 1347’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias… A new low during this environment would be likely to recover entirely | FAQ |
|
[/pay]
Bias-down, or not bias-down.
[pay]Just after the noon hour a spike down managed to touch the morning’s ESm 1352’50 bias-down target. The new low was recovered immediately – along with its simultaneous probe of the afternoon’s 1353’75 bias-down signal. Unless S&Ps are back under this morning’s 1356’00 low by 1:30pm ET, a test of the 1359’50 bias-up signal would be likely. And if that can be accomplished during the next hour, then sellers would have time to resume the decline.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1357.75 | 1359’50 |
| …would target | 1363.50 | 1365’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1352 | 1353’75 |
| …would target | 1345.75 | 1347’50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
[/pay]