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Bias-parameters – Page 400 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bias-parameters

Afternoon bias

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 2124.00 2120.00
…would target 2129.75 2126.00
Bias-down: under 2113.50 2109.75
…would target 2108.00 2104.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Morning bias

FRI signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 2124.75 2120.75
…would target 2129.75 2126.00
Bias-down: under 2112.75 2109.00
…would target 2107.00 2103.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Bias-up , up and away

Post-open uptrend remains intact and productive.

As suspected before the open, today”s gap up was very different from yesterday”s. Its intent was not to fulfill a signal before likely reversing down, but to signal that a reversal down was not likely. And the reward at this stage of the pattern — with each prior sell-off never indicating a trend reversal — is to extend to new highs.

This morning”s rally to 2111.00 was consolidated back down to 2108.00 support into the noon hour. The rally resumed, and has extended to fresh highs into the bias environment. The prior relative high is being probed up to 2116.50, within 5 ticks of this afternoon”s bias-up target. 

Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought, which does introduce a vulnerability to reacting down, but also indicates that a reaction down would be only temporary. A reaction down could test 2110.75 without threatening to reverse the trend down, so long as the bias environment isn”t exited at 2:30 under its 2111.50 bias-up signal.

Just exiting the bias environment back under 2114.75 would suggest today”s rally has peaked, but not necessarily that it is being reversed. The 2119.75 prior high should be probed by 1 point before the next correction, probably shallow.

Afternoon bias

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 2115.50 2111.50
…would target 2121.75 2117.75
Bias-down: under 2108.25 2104.25
…would target 2102.50 2098.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Morning bias

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 2103.75 2099.50
…would target 2109.25 2105.00
Bias-down: under 2092.25 2088.00
…would target 2086.25 2082.00
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.