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Bias-parameters – Page 447 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bias-parameters

Morning bias

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 2071.50 2070.00
…would target 2076.25 2075.00
Bias-down: under 2061.50 2060.25
…would target 2054.75 2053.25
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Morning bias

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 2075.25 2074.00
…would target 2081.75 2080.50
Bias-down: under 2069.00 2067.75
…would target 2062.00 2060.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Afternoon bias

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 2071.50 2070.00
…would target 2076.75 2075.50
Bias-down: under 2066.75 2065.50
…would target 2062.00 2060.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Morning bias

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 2071.50 2070.00
…would target 2077.00 2075.50
Bias-down: under 2067.00 2065.50
…would target 2062.00 2060.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

No-bias means no-bias.

Narrow ranging can end now. Hellooo?

This morning”s bias environment exit triggered the 2065.50 buy signal and extended to 2070.50 at the noon hour”s high. This afternoon”s 2069.25 bias-up signal didn”t trigger, but the bias environment was spent ranging narrowly around it.

Now the bias environment is lapsing. Trending may resume, in whichever direction. Waiting much longer might not trend at all. 

At least, not reliably. Volume is starting to disappear, which inhibits trending. If trending gets started, the low volume makes trending difficult to stop, let alone to reverse. Don”t rely on moves to extend.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: For Wednesday”s regular-lengthed session and Friday”s half-day, we”ll still be open as usual. But keep in mind that while trending is possible, it”s less likely.