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Bias-parameters – Page 466 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bias-parameters

Afternoon bias

[pay]

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 1880.75 1875.00
…would target 1885.75 1880.00
Bias-down: under 1875.75 1870.00
…would target 1870.75 1865.00
Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

[/pay]

Bias-down means bias-down.

But the bias-down target is already met.

[pay] The overnight fresh high was further rejected before the open, which gapped down to the 1874.25 bias-down signal. That extended down immediately until touching the 1869.25 bias-down target.

1874.25 wasn’t recovered through 10:15, and it was barely being pierced at 10:30, so this is a bias-down environment. Whose target has been met. A buy signal would be credible, but I would give it a tight stop.

Sellers are credible, too. Perhaps more so. if we generously assume that buyers were in control of yesterday’s cash session close, then this morning’s gap down under yesterday afternoon’s 1874.25 low rejected them. That would form a “session-long decline” setup. And that would require bounces to fail, while each intraday timing window prints a fresh low.

Again, that’s if we’re generous to yesterday’s buyers, so we can consider them having been rejected at today’s open. Fresh lows would next target 1862.00 or 1860.00.

[/pay]

Morning bias

[pay]

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 1885.75 1880.00
…would target 1892.00 1886.25
Bias-down: under 1880.00 1874.25
…would target 1875.00 1869.25
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

[/pay]

Afternoon bias

[pay]

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 1884.00 1878.00
…would target 1888.75 1883.00
Bias-down: under 1877.00 1871.25
…would target 1872.75 1866.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

[/pay]

Morning bias

[pay]

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 1884.00 1878.00
…would target 1888.75 1883.00
Bias-down: under 1875.75 1870.00
…would target 1869.50 1863.50
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN TARGET FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

[/pay]