Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1883.00 | 1877.00 |
| …would target | 1887.75 | 1881.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1877.25 | 1871.25 |
| …would target | 1871.50 | 1865.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1880.00 | 1874.00 |
| …would target | 1884.50 | 1878.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1872.25 | 1866.25 |
| …would target | 1867.00 | 1861.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Morning bias
[pay]
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1873.00 | 1866.75 |
| …would target | 1878.50 | 1872.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1865.25 | 1859.25 |
| …would target | 1859.25 | 1853.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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That’s what bias is. And isn’t.
Bias-up absorbs morning drop.
[pay]This morning’s blog post listed the qualifications that triggered the 1861.00 bias-up, and also described why bias-up wasn’t invalidated. I also pointed out why bias-up wouldn’t prevent the 1860.75 sell signal from being productive.
“Mixed signal city” was true to its name, as the 7-point drop from 1864.50 to 1857.50 is now retraced entirely.
But, wait, there’s more…
At least, that’s what this morning’s bias-up signal suggests. Its 1867.25 bias-up target is “unfinished business above. This afternoon’s 1863.25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. This is actually a noN-bias environment, so the bias-up signal isn’t restraining fresh highs — but its target above 1867.25 need not be met.
And that’s what a bias-up is, and isn’t. It doesn’t prevent a dip, but it does offer context to build expectations for how a dip resolves.
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1869.50 | 1863.25 |
| …would target | 1875.00 | 1868.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1865.00 | 1858.00 |
| …would target | 1859.25 | 1853.00 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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