Bias-parameters
Morning bias
[pay]
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1842.75 | 1836.00 |
| …would target | 1847.75 | 1841.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1829.75 | 1823.25 |
| …would target | 1823.25 | 1816.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
[pay]
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1856.50 | 1849.75 |
| …would target | 1862.50 | 1855.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1850.50 | 1843.75 |
| …would target | 1844.25 | 1837.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1875.75 | 1869.00 |
| …would target | 1880.75 | 1874.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1866.00 | 1859.25 |
| …would target | 1860.50 | 1853.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
[/pay]
Who needs bias signals, when we’ve got bias targets?
It’s a rhetorical questions.
[pay]Sort of like this morning’s late bias signal, this afternoon’s noN-bias signal left doors open and questions unanswered. Nothing particular was in-play. At least, not a bias.
There were still patterns, and signals. And they triggered.
This afternoon’s last buy signal to trigger at 1852.75 was in reaction to the FOMC Minutes release. And it surged through the 1858.25 bias-up target.
That surge extended to test the 1860.00-1861.00 target I had noted probably would be visited if there were a bias-up. It was also exceeded up to 1864.00.
Persistently overbought 3-minute RSI has finally ended, and 1-minute RSI has diverged negatively. None of which is a sell signal. The highest calculable sell signal is 1861.50, targeting 1855.75.
Triggering the sell signal, or not, the pattern is vulnerable to a short-squeeze into the close. That’s more difficult to trust than at least a pullback to 1855.75 and 1853.00 or lower.
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Afternoon bias
[pay]
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1859.50 | 1852.75 |
| …would target | 1865.00 | 1858.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1850.75 | 1844.00 |
| …would target | 1844.25 | 1837.50 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
[/pay]