Bias-parameters

Range’s upper-end still being attacked.

[pay]The noon hour’s probe above 1804.00 has only ranged sideways instead of extending above 1805.50 to signal momentum extending higher, and to perhaps trigger the 1806.50 bias-up signal. A dip held 1804.00 as support instead of extending down under 1803.00 to signal momentum reversing down.

This is a no-bias environment. Probing above the 1806.50 bias-up signal would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure. Doomed though it may be, this environment is not inappropriate for those sorts of weak-handed moves.

Breaking under 1803.00 would not be contradictory to the no-bias signal, since there is room to the 1799.25 bias-down signal without being trending. And there is unfinished business below it at 1796.00.

So, a fresh high wouldn’t be reliable for trending higher, but it would be credible for trying. Unfortunately, that might be what passes as a setup in this low volume pre-holiday environment.

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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

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Has sponsorship caught the early plane home?

[pay]The open’s 4-point surge up to 1804.50 was retraced back down to the 1801.50 pre-open low. It did not extend down until after a knee-jerk reaction to 10:00’s econ reports. Then the extension down plunged to 1798.75.

That’s still not 1796.00. That’s still not fulfilling the 1796.00 “unfinished business” left outstanding from yesterday. And that’s still not a test of this morning’s 1796.00 bias-down signal.

So, selling pressure hasn’t been neutralized, which makes it the likely attraction. But the opening bounce didn’t bounce high enough to require an offsetting test of the bias-down signal.

At least, without putting into play any test of higher levels, the market remains in the orbit of 1796.00 below. But there is no predictable path down. This morning’s 1798.75 plunge stopped optimistically short of touching yesterday’s low just 1 tick lower, and no accumulative pattern has formed.

So, ssellers continue getting every benefit of the doubt — so long as the 1806.00 area isn’t recovered through any relevant timing window.

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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

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