Bias-parameters
Morning bias
Bias-up target met. And held.
Extreme optimism?
[pay]This afternoon’s 1339.75 bias-up target was met. A dip down to 1336.75 in reaction to FOMC Minutes had left overbought RSIs above. They were retested up to 1340.25.
A single reaction down probed fresh lows down to 1335.00. The drop can be corrected up to 1338.00-1338.50 without buyers regaining traction. A fresher low would signal momentum has reversed down, which could have very bearish consequences into the close.
But recovering 1338.50 could trend up into the close.
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Afternoon bias
Bias-up target met within 1 tick.
A lot of optimism expended.
[pay]The 1334.50 bias-up target was met within 1 tick. Falling back under 1331.00 would take it off the table, signaling that momentum had reversed down. Exiting the noon hour back under 1328.50 would confirm a retest underway of 1319.00.
Back above 1333.50 would signal the bounce was extending up to 1336.00. And 1336.00 would remain in-play so long as 1333.50 were to hold as support.
In other words, a fresh high above 1334.25 that was reversed back under 1333.50 would instead form a top. This vulnerability should be considered since RSIs diverged negatively into 1334.25.
The sooner that this morning’s bounce is retraced into negative territory, the likelier that it was intended to refuel sellers. Some delay might be allowable with this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release looming ahead.
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