Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s slightly lower low came within 10 pips of the outstanding 1.0865. target. Then it recovered back above Monday’s prior high, forming an outside day that rejected a probe under prior lows. If not exploited too quickly by impatient buyers — e.g. gapping up — then a durable bottom may be allowed to form.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing back under the 1266.00 buy signal twice Monday was recovered again by Tuesday’s gap up. Last week’s 1276.00 high of the original probe was attacked intraday, and then probed after the close to suggest the 1283.50 bounce target is in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s retest of Monday’s high also retested the 17.80 buy signal that closing above would trigger a rally, whether temporary or durable. Once again failing to trigger it by Wednesday’s open would make an attack on recent lows likelier.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight under the 163-27 support to the bottoming pattern trying to form was recovered pre-open to also probe back above the 164-08 pullback limit and test 165-02 — all of which keeps alive the bounce’s attraction to 165-30 and 166-19.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s inside day wasn’t itself predictive, but it didn’t attract sponsorship to reject Monday’s probe of the current range’s lows, which itself makes a break lower likelier.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rolling forward to from Nov to Dec is not directly comparable, with price differences ranging from 20 33 cents at various relevant price points. But last week’s two-day range is more defined, so its breakout Friday that was confirmed on Monday makes at least a third lower close likelier. And Tuesday’s lower close can satisfy the requirement.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday didn’t extend intraday, as the decline’s 1.0865 target remains outstanding just under Friday’s low.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially recovering from an overnight dip under 1266.00, Monday eventually dipped back down to the overnight lows, suggesting the bounce is stopping short of its potential to 1283.50 and resuming an attack on the lows.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up above prior highs also tested 17.80 resistance that had yet to be touched. Holding it keeps alive potential to attack recent lows before a credible rally leg can begin.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming slightly overnight to 165-10 was reversed into negative territory Monday, testing the 164-08 level that keeps alive the bottoming pattern, let alone bounce potential to 165-30 and 166-19.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing fresh relative lows Monday under 50.00 still didn’t immediately attract sponsorship to extend at least a corrective leg. But a downleg remains likely so long as 50.80 is not recovered.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s break under the 3.14 pullback limit resolved in another gap down Monday that extended to new lows for the month under 2.86. Friday’s break from a two-day range suggests that Monday confirmed it, now requiring at least a third eventual lower close. The two-day range wasn’t optimal, so a new low close might be avoided — but I would still hesitate buying weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Surging so aggressively Thursday morning was premature since a bottom had not signaled it was yet even forming. That impatient buying was reversed to a new low close that produced a gap down Friday, quickly nearing the next lower target at 1.0865.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing back under 1266.00 overnight was recovered into Friday’s open, and held as support through the day, without trying to resume the rally.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrowly ranging session showed no signs of confirming the week’s earlier surge had attracted any new sponsorship.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh recovery highs tested 165-02, whose recovery would help to confirm the 165-30 and 166-19 targets remain intact.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Thursday was a little too abrupt for already launching a new downleg after having held the rally’s 51.50 target retest only one day earlier. It being premature was somewhat confirmed by Friday’s narrow range, which does help to launch a more credible downleg.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although Thursday’s reaction to EIA ultimately held its 3.14 pullback limit, despite testing its room for noise down to 3.09-3.11, Friday’s open gapped down under Thursday’s low and trended down intraday to probe under 3.00. This is a breakout from a multi-session range, so closing lower Monday would entrench the decline and not allow a rally to form near-term. Closing Monday back above 3.14 would be the minimum to suggest a bottom may form.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s ECB meeting was greeted after the decline’s 1.0994 objective had been met, but without having recovered to close above 1.1011 signaling a bottom forming. Surging sharply to 1.1065 was reversed down even more sharply to fresh lows at 1.0940. The next lower objective in-play is 1.0865 if Friday doesn’t reject Thursday’s break lower.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up above the 1266.00 buy signal had not extended higher intraday. That didn’t necessarily preclude extending higher, and neither does Thursday’s dip back down to the 1266.00 buy signal as support. But another attack on the lows first can’t yet be ruled out.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s session-long fluctuation around prior highs had not gained any traction, stopping short of its 17.80 buy signal, Thursday’s dip isn’t necessarily bullish, but it does help to insert more “ineffectual pessimism” that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Several days of chipping away at 164-08 resistance, and finally probing higher intraday, was probed even higher on Thursday. Holding above 164-08 allows extending the bounce to 165-30 or 166-19.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s retest of the rally’s 51.50 target had ended the day overlapping its prior test as was expected. Already gapping down to and or through 50.80 Thursday is too abrupt of a start to be confident a new downleg is now beginning. But that continues to be the likely resolution.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from Wednesday’s test of the 3.14 pullback limit still allowed room for noise down to 3.09-3.11. Entering the weekend back above 3.14 is the minimum requirement to maintain any near-term upside potential, without requiring a deeper pullback.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of Sunday night’s low had stopped optimistically short. Fresh lows overnight fulfilled that minimum objective, while holding 1.0994 to avoid requiring lower lows. But 1.1011 must be recovered to begin signaling a bottom may be forming.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although Tuesday’s gap up and follow-through had stopped short of the 1266.00 buy signal, Wednesday’s open gapped up above it to attack 1274.50. The bounce could extend to 1283.50, but reversing down first to attack the lows would form a more durable bottom.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday only spent the session fluctuating narrowly around prior highs, and under the 17.80 buy signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Two days spent testing the 164-08 buy signal as resistance without recovering it did try breaking higher Wednesday. Closing higher Thursday would confirm a bigger bounce underway targeting 166-19.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Potential for retesting the rally’s 51.50 target was fulfilled Wednesday when reaction to the EIA report triggered a surge to attack 52.00. The retest was likely to hold, and did spend much of the day hovering just above 51.50, but not rejecting it. Closing higher Thursday would confirm 54.60 is in-play

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite Tuesday’s gap up and test of 3.29 resistance not closing under 3.26 — only at it — an overnight slide tested 3.14. Holding it as support maintains the potential for retesting the highs, if not also for resuming the rally.