Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s failed intraday probe above last Wednesday’s high had proved that sponsorship was lacking to resume the rally. Tuesday’s dip attacking last Thursday’s 1.0920 low suggests its correction down to 1.0750-1.0785 is underway.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week’s dip had stopped optimistically short of testing the 1057.20-1061.50 pullback limit, preventing a lower buy signal than the 1077.70 resistance that limited its reaction. Tuesday’s deeper dip more thoroughly tested the pullback limit, which now allows a close above 1070.00 to launch a new upleg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing prematurely to as high as 14.10 would still be required to fail and produce a third lower close. Tuesday only ranged narrowly, not even bouncing, but also not producing a third lower close.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s reaction down that filled the gap back to last Thursday’s close was extended sharply lower Tuesday morning to 153-30. That creates a lot of room to absorb a bounce or knee-jerk reaction up to 156-29 without resuming the rally.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An early probe above 36.70 resistance was ultimately recovered Tuesday morning and extended to 38.88. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would signal that a much bigger bounce was underway. Back under 36.70 would trigger a retest of Sunday night’s low.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows Tuesday fulfilled the structural requirement for at least a third lower close. But potential to 1.80 was missed narrowly, suggesting that a bounce would be premature.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s reaction down from filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s 1.1020 high still had potential to probe Wednesday’s 1.1045 before reversing down. Monday’s probe above 1.1045 wasn’t rejected by the afternoon, but now any weakness would be more credible for reversing down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s reaction up from its shallow morning dip had stopped short of actually recovering 1077.70 to reverse momentum up. Monday reacted back down to attack Friday’s 1065.50 area low, trending down on an inside day, so closing above 1077.70 would still launch a rally.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down Sunday night to fresh lows wasn’t recovered intraday, confirming Friday’s breakout, and now requiring at least an eventual third lower close potentially targeting 13.55.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s reaction back down under 157-04 and 156-15 extended down to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 155-08 gap. No unfinished business above is outstanding, so closing under 154-30 can launch a new downleg.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing fresh lows Sunday night was already bouncing into Monday’s open, which extended higher intraday back into positive territory. A second consecutive lower close confirming Friday’s breakout was avoided. But closing above 36.70 is needed to launch a rally leg.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s confirmation of Thursday’s breakout had then required at least an eventual third lower close. Trending down already Sunday night and extending intraday Monday fulfilled the objective. But the pattern is not likely to reverse up durably immediately, not without first touching 1.80.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rather than extend the corrective pullback any deeper first, Friday’s bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1.1020 close. This is more suggestive of topping, so that the next decline is durable. Rejecting a probe above Wednesday’s high would have been more bearish, and still could be.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding sharply to attack 1061.50 support from Thursday’s close under 1074.00 was reversed up sharply to test 1077.77. Now a recovery is even more dependent on holding 1074.00 as support, if not also there being no delay to extending up through 1077.70.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap down was within the prior range, but that didn’t prevent extending to fresh lows intraday. The pattern was not very responsive to Gold’s recovery, ending under prior lows. Its downside risk is in being confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Delaying and backing-and-filling from attacks on the 156-12 target better enabled its eventual test to extend through it Friday. The breakout is next targeting 157-22 so long as pullbacks hold 157-04 as support. Closing under 156-15 would reverse the trend back down.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down overnight to test the 36.25 target wasn’t rejected to close back above 36.70, which would have sealed a bottom. But the new low at 35.35 into the weekend reflects excessive pessimism when there is often a geopolitical risk premium. It is not quite a second consecutive lower close, but it is at least a breakout.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive lower closes into the weekend now require at least an eventual third lower close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s probe of fresh highs wasn’t likely to extend, but Thursday’s gap down under last week’s 1.0985 prior high hasn’t yet proved momentum is reversing down. A correction can fill the week’s two lower outstanding gaps below and then resume the rally. Retesting Wednesday’s high first would make the next downleg more durable.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday back under 1074.00 support didn’t extend down, keeping the window open for a break above 1077.70 to extend higher intraday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still hovering at or above the rally attempt’s original 14.10 target still makes a break above 14.35 likely to extend sharply higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Hovering Thursday just under Wednesday’s highs maintains the upside momentum that still targets a fresh high at 156-12.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
After having neutralized the attraction at Monday’s gap down, hovering narrowly just off recent lows all but ensures probing fresh lows down to 36.25. Recovering to close positive the same day would suggest a bottom had formed.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not being greeted from a position of strength. But also not from a position of weakness, which didn’t prevent trending down gently in reaction to the news. An immediate reversal from this setup would not be credible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s bounce was duplicated Wednesday by gapping up through 1.0900 and probing a fresh high above 1.1040. The shallow interim pullback and consecutive gaps up suggest the retest of last week’s high will hold and reverse back down more substantially, instead of trending up.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday above 1077.70 to test 1085.00 was reversed back down to Tuesday’s 1070.00 opening gap down. The close was trying to recover 1074.00, keeping alive the upward momentum.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reacting up Wednesday from Tuesday’s dip back down to the original 14.10 buy signal was itself retraced, after attacking 14.35 resistance. Back above 14.35 would be bullish.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing Wednesday well under the 154-12 pullback limit down to 153-24 was nonetheless recovered intraday back into positive territory up to 155-25, still targeting a fresh high at 156-12.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting favorably to Wednesday’s EIA report up to 39.00 was only temporary, as unfinished business remained outstanding below at Tuesday’s 36.71 gap down. Already attacking it Wednesday to within 20 cents instead of extending higher reflects a lot of pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pattern isn’t greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, still hovering off of the lows. But no “unfinished business below” remains outstanding.