Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After Tuesday”s gap down went on to only range sideways intraday, not gapping down Wednesday made the decline unlikely to extend. And, therefore, unlikely to confirm Tuesday”s break. Bounce potential to 1.1250-1.1275 can be probed intraday, but must hold through the close to maintain the near-term downward momentum.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s confirmation of Monday”s breakout already fulfilled its minimum third lower close Wednesday. Bouncing from 1168.00 closed under the week-old prior low to trigger another pattern whose objective is 1162.00, while the bigger picture still targets 1158.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
As was expected, Wednesday avoided a lower close that would have confirmed Tuesday”s breakout. That doesn”t reverse the trend up, nor does it preclude probing lower lows, but it helps to avoid participating in Gold”s deeper decline.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday helped to confirm that Tuesday”s late dip back toward 148-20 was only noise. Reacting down was recovered into the afternoon, back above Monday”s 149-24 close to start signaling the downleg from Friday”s high had ended. Closing back above 150-08 would signal another rally leg underway.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday night”s fresh high testing 61.55 was retraced to test 60.70 support into Wednesday”s open. Wednesday morning”s bounce back to 61.50 was reversed down to fresh lows at 59.80. Closing under 60.70 must be recovered by noon Thursday to maintain the potential upside momentum.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday tested the 2.77 buy signal but didn”t trigger it, greeting Thursday”s EIA report from a position of weakness. Closing Thursday above 2.77 — and preferably also above 2.83 — would be the minimum requirement to suggest momentum is reversing up.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday fulfilled the last remaining upside attraction by retesting 1.1414 — both overnight and post-open. The resolution was not immediate, but it was substantial, as Tuesday”s open gapped down sharply to 1.1214. The session did not trend down, so bounces should be shallow before extending the break, preferably no higher than 1.1250-1.1275.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s steep drop to test 1183.70 support extended down Tuesday morning to attack the next relevant support at 1175.00. Despite it holding, the second consecutive lower close did confirm Monday”s breakout. The next lower objective is 1158.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s break lower to test 15.70 is a breakout. Follow-through Wednesday is likely, but not necessarily a second consecutive confirming lower close. Confirmation would be credible, but we”ll be monitoring for any signs of recovery.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Filling the gap Monday back down to Thursday”s close without reacting up had made a fresh low likely. Tuesday”s gap down initially extended lower to test 148-08. Recovering back above 148-20 nearly filled the gap back to Monday”s 149-24 close. That slight pessimism might be enough to trust early strength above 150-08 for extending higher. Closing back above under 148-20 would instead signal a new downleg underway.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday”s late surge had stopped short of attacking 60.70 and was retraced overnight to 59.55 after Tuesday”s open. But another surge probed 60.70 and tested the 61.20 buy signal. EIA reports Wednesday morning.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Gapping up Tuesday above 2.77 began to signal that Monday”s narrow ranging at prior lows had not gained traction. Closing above the 2.77 buy signal was another matter, as the balance of the session dipped back down to Monday”s 2.72 close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The retest of Thursday”s 1.1414 gap up was fulfilled Sunday night, and again intraday Monday. Closing above 1.1455 would start to signal the rally is extending to 1.1635. Closing first back under 1.1295 would trigger a new downleg.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having never confirmed Thursday”s gap up Friday, Sunday night”s drop back under the 1197.00 sell signal extended down sharply intraday to attack 1181.50. Breaking under it and under 1179.00 would confirm a test of 1158.50 is in-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The lower-end of the 16.15-16.35 resistance range was probed Monday, but only momentarily as the session essentially ranged around 16.15.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday and extending intraday to probe the prior highs above 151-25 was overly-optimistic despite Thursday having fulfilled any remaining downside attraction. Monday”s gap down to 150-22 and intraday slide filled the gap back down to Thursday”s 149-23 close. Closing back above 150-08 would signal that the recovery attempt was resuming.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing Sunday night to attack 60.70 resistance was retraced to spend Monday back within Friday”s narrow range around 59.75. Back above 60.70 would now qualify again as a buy signal, confirmed above 61.20.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite having recovered Friday from filling the gap back down to 2.74, Monday”s open gapped back down to range 1-2 cents under it through the morning. Back above 2.77 would now qualify again as a buy signal, confirmed above 2.83.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday was unlikely to trend down durably, since Thursday”s gap up above all prior highs would like to be filled regardless of the eventual resolution. In fact, the gap back to Thursday”s 1.1380 close was filled. All requirements for higher closes have been fulfilled.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday morning”s price action was confined within Thursday”s narrow post-open range, neither extending nor confirming its break, but also not yet rejecting it.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s reaction down from the upper-end of its 16.15-16.35 range to its lower-end was followed by a spike down Friday morning that recovered back up to 16.15. There is no active signal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s thorough retest of 149-16 avoided closing under it, satisfying all influential selling pressure. That did not equate to a buy signal, which would trigger above 150-10. But its recovery overnight gapped up into Friday”s open and surged to probe 151-25 resistance that had contained the week”s prior highs. A second consecutive higher close on Monday would prevent retesting the 150-00 area.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holding Thursday”s test of 60.70 resistance and stopping short of the 61.20 buy signal didn”t equate to being a sell signal. But Friday”s open gapped down and the session ranged choppily sideways.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Slightly lower lows at Friday”s open quickly filled the gap back to 2.74 before reversing back up into positive territory to test 2.82 resistance, whose recovery would resume the rally.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar SepContract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fulfilling the outstanding requirement for a third higher close Wednesday helped to trigger an Ascending Triangle pattern that had formed. Extending higher Thursday tried confirming Wednesday”s breakout with a second consecutive higher close, which would require another eventual third higher close. Regardless of the confirmation, just having gapped up Thursday above all prior highs does undermine an immediate reversal attempt.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
While awaiting a break under the 1175.00 sell signal, two big bounces held their maximum limits. But Wednesday”s post-close surge in reaction to the FOMC statement extended sharply higher overnight to test 1999.00-1204.00 where the early-Jun surge peaked. This retest may be as temporary, and back under 1197.00 would reverse momentum down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reacting higher Wednesday to the FOMC statement extended higher overnight to test the upper-end of the 16.15-16.35 resistance range. Reacting down sharply to the range”s lower-end can”t afford to close any lower, or else new lows would be in-play.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Wednesday from only attacking it 149-16 pullback objective had undermined the recovery attempt. Extending the bounce overnight to 151-29 still reversed down Thursday to thoroughly test 149-16 by another quarter-point. Closing back above 150-10 would resume the rally.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward from Jul to Aug which is at a 40-cent premium] A failed overnight rally had tested the 61.20 buy signal. Bouncing into Thursday”s open spent the session ranging narrowly flat-to-higher around 60.70 resistance. There is no new setup to initially target 63.55.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength above prior lows and having probed fresh highs. The knee-jerk reaction from 2.83 support up to 2.88 reacted down anyway to test 2.77 support. Back above 2.83 would signal the rally resuming.