Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday afternoon”s dip had held its 1.1095 pullback limit, which Wednesday”s exploited with a second consecutive higher close that confirmed Tuesday”s breakout. Now at least an eventual third higher close is required.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday had not yet broken lower to continue reversing Monday morning”s failed surge, but Wednesday”s gap down and follow-through to 1180.00 compensated for the delay. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm a deeper downleg underway targeting the 1150”s. Closing above 1189.00 would undermine the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s open was already gapping down and probing fresh relative lows ahead of the afternoon”s Beige Book release. Lower lows stopped short of probing the 16.15-16.30. target area.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
New lows Wednesday morning fulfilled the longstanding 149-08 target to within 1 tick before firming into and out of the afternoon”s Beige Book release. Closing above 150-16 would indicate the drop was ending, but not necessarily ready to reverse the trend back up.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
After having probed above 60.80, testing 60.30 was likely to hold through Wednesday”s close. It didn”t. Closing under it suggests that much more substantial selling pressure is forming. But gapping up and/or spiking back through 60.80 Thursday would reject Wednesday”s deeper dip, while targeting 63.00. Closing under 58.75 would invalidate the recovery potential.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s gap down from having closed Tuesday above a multi-session range has left unfinished business above. And the intraday dip held a 61.8% retracement back into the range. Greeting Thursday”s EIA report already in an uptrend would have been a better position of strength. But immediate strength would be credible for extending higher.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday”s had dip held a 61.8% retracement of the rally from last week”s low. Tuesday”s open surged through the likely 1.1095 target on the way to almost 1.1200. Extending the rally depends upon pullbacks holding 1.1110 as support. The next higher target would be 1.2975 1.1295. Otherwise, a much deeper decline is underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s stunning intraday retracement of the morning”s surge had not extended under Friday”s close by noon. Instead, flat-to-higher ranging remained within Monday”s range, now falling behind schedule in launching a new downleg.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Completely retracing Monday”s opening surge had created a time frame for extending down, if the pattern remained likely to extend down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday”s steep, deep 2-point drop from 155-5 extended down Tuesday as steeply and as deeply to test 151-14..A bounce should hold 152-24 before resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s probing above 60.80 made any dip unlikely to close under 60.30. The probe extended higher to attack 61.80. Now holding above 51.75 59.75 keeps the 63.00 target in-play.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s fresh lows down to 2.60 fulfilled the bottoming setup I had described after Monday”s close. Probing Sunday night”s low and recovering back into Friday”s range above 2.63 –optimally also probing above Monday”s 2.67 high — should marginalize sellers. Closing under 2.60 would be that much more bearish.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Potential for extending the corrective bounce above 1.1000 was interrupted by Monday”s drop to 1.0890, which retraced 61.8% of the rally from last week”s 1.0820 low. Back above 1.0960 and 1.0975 would resume the bounce to 1.1095. Otherwise, extending the pullback any deeper could resume the massive decline.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
One or two modest spikes up hadn”t stretched the rubber band enough for its snap back down to finally chip away at support. That didn”t change whether the ranging was distributive. Neither did Monday morning”s surge to 1204.70, which retraced entirely back down to unchanged under 1190.00. That was preceded by early weakness, so closing negative is the minimum requirement to start a break lower.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging Monday morning to test 17.15 was retraced entirely to prevent buyers from gaining traction. But piercing negative territory under 16.65 didn”t actually reverse the trending back down, which is the bearish pattern”s only missing element.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next higher objective for a corrective bounce was rendered moot when Monday avoided probing at all above Friday”s 155-26 high before trending back down intraday under 154-20 to signal the bounce had ended already. The reversal extended down to test 153-08, so a bounce now has room up to 154-12 to maintain the reversal down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing under 60.30 Friday prevented the session”s rally from gaining traction. Monday was spent ranging around the original 59.75 sell signal. Back under 58.70 should resume the decline, but breaking above 60.80 would more likely test 63.00 first.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down to fresh lows Sunday further delayed the potential for a buy signal. But closing Monday above Friday”s lows does allow a bottoming setup to form Tuesday, by probing Sunday night”s 2.60 low intraday and recovery back into Friday”s range again above 2.64, above 2.68 would be optimal. Bounces meanwhile should hold 2.71 as resistance.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday and ranging sideways kept alive the corrective bounce. Its potential to 1.1095 remains intact so long as 1.0910 holds any test as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Aug which trades at a 50-cent premium to Jun]… Friday”s blip-up in reaction to GDP was reversed immediately back into this week”s narrow range, all but confirming that the prior three sessions were not accumulative, and that lower objectives remain outstanding.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Blipping up in reaction to Friday”s GDP didn”t extend higher. as lower objective remain outstanding in the 16.15-16.35 area.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep which trades at a 1-18 discount from Jun]… Friday”s gap up attacked Thursday”s gap up, a little more successfully by extending through its 155-14 opening high to 155-27. But the probe quickly settled into narrow ranging around 155-14. The next higher objective in the context of only a temporary corrective rally can now be calculated as 156-16/156-24. Otherwise, back under 154-20 first would signal the bounce had ended already.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s late bounce had not ended the trend, but it did jeopardize its near-term momentum, making it vulnerable to a bounce. Despite retracing overnight firming before Friday”s open, a post-open $2 surge tested the original 59.75 sell signal, and then extended higher to attack 60.80. Just closing above 60.30 is now vulnerable to a bigger detour on the way down to 55.00 — which would be back in-play by closing under 58.15.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The next lower objective under 2.86 at 2.64 was tested Friday, and still being overlapped through the afternoon. The lower close also confirmed Thursday”s break from a mult-session range, so at least a third lower close is required eventually. And that would necessitate closing under the 2.64 objective, putting into play something lower. That something lower could be very much lower if a bottom isn”t forming here. So a bottom depends upon limiting a fresh low close to only a single session, and then immediately recovering above 2.67.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s bounce extended grudgingly Thursday, recovering the 1.0910 bounce limit. The bounce could extend to 1.1095, but 1.0750 remains intact.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s momentary spike down to 1179.60 was recovered back into the narrow range around 1186.00. Tue-Wed stability couldn”t be confused with being stoic, and recovering back up into their range is not any more so bullish. A slightly higher bounce might stretch the rubber band before snapping back down into a new downleg, but it”s not required.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s blip-down filled an outstanding gap back before recovering back into the narrow range. No lower lows are required, but the price action is not accumulative.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The extended rally didn”t extend any high Thursday. But its initial reaction down didn”t extend, as the session ranged narrowly sideways. The “ineffectual pessimism” is likely to launch at least one more probe of fresh highs.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s gap down extended a little, but ultimately ended the day testing Wednesday”s close. It was a late surge only, so it”s not necessarily bullish, but the bounce can extended a little higher and delay resuming the decline..

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday already was greeted by gapping down. So, the EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength. And its reaction extended the gap down to lower lows at 2.70. A buy signal won”t be credible until Tuesday.