Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s volatility enabled Crude Oil to essentially meet its target, for the Euro to potentially resume its decline, and Natural Gas to discount Thursday’s coming EIA report. None of which need extend Thursday. But Gold’s balancing act is getting old.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Last Thursday’s 80.31 opening gap was filled Wednesday, and held. The reaction down has room to 80.00 before suggesting the rally won’t extend.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s low retested last week’s low, and held. There is no requirement to retest Wednesday’s low, except that the decline has likely resumed so long as 1.1.3700 isn’t recovered.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday just enough to retest 1289.00 without breaking lower wasn’t “ineffectual pessimism,” since prior sessions’ lows weren’t probed intraday. And the session remained in negative territory, so 1289.00 seems to have lost its elasticity. Downtrending shouldn’t be far behind.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s hovering just above 19.25 support wasn’t necessarily bullish, but its break isn’t any likelier to extend down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s recovery from fresh lows had been retraced entirely before Wednesday’s open, and extended down to probe fresh lows attacking 136-08. That’s one of the last two lines of defense against already beginning a bigger decline instead of first waiting to retest last week’s high.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The targeted retest of prior highs up to the 104.00 area was fulfilled Wednesday. The day’s range expansion suggests that buyers have more energy to at least test 104.50 either Thursday or Friday, and closing above it would signal a much bigger leg underway.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday was the last safe day for a pullback ahead of Thursday’s EIA report, but a dip back to the last relative low wasn’t rejected in time to signal the pullback was complete. Immediately testing the 4.42 area Wednesday would help to launch a bullish reaction.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas has continued to behave bullishly since its week-old low, preceding last Thursday’s EIA report reaction. Wednesday would be the last opportunity for a little constructive pessimism ahead of this week’s report.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrow ranging has continued while currencies begin fluctuating a little more widely. A near-term break is likely. Not necessarily in either direction, but that action would start to define the next move.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Still caught in a very narrow band, not even describable as ranging. The likelihood for a correction is threatening to be fulfilled by the passage of time, instead of by bouncing. Regardless, there is no active signal.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The reaction down from yet another failed gap up was extended into Tuesday’s opening test of 1289.00. The support held its test down to 1286.00, bouncing back to test 1295.00, but not reversing momentum up.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s opening dip held 19.25 support’s retest. There is still room down to 19.05 before signaling a new downleg is underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initial weakness into Tuesday’s open was reversed into positive territory Tuesday, presumably on the way to retesting last week’s high. And without yet having dipped deeply enough or for long enough, the high’s retest should hold.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s gap up wasn’t rejected intraday, and a dip under it Tuesday was recovered. The rally requires no further delay before extending higher to test 104.00.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
An early attack on 4.41 was reversed up to fresh highs at 4.57, further signaling the trending reversing up. Now resistance will be a factor at 4.61.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Another failed opening gap on Gold? That’s not bullish… not, yet. Similar action in March preceded the stock market’s drop, which dumped enough ballast to launch a leg to April’s new high.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Narrow ranging Monday helped to confirm that buyers aren’t yet retaking control, while leaving the door open to a corrective dip that has no requirement for its timing.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Narrow ranging Monday helped to confirm that sellers aren’t yet retaking control, while leaving the door open to a corrective bounce that has no requirement for its timing.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally to 1303.00 resistance extended slightly higher intraday to 1306.00 — touching downtrending resistance from the two prior failed opening gaps up — before reversing back down and filling the gap back to Friday’s 1298.00 close.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After dipping to 19.25 support Friday, Sunday night’s rally attacked 19.75 resistance, before reversing back down to attack Friday’s close. Trending down Tuesday would be credible for retesting prior lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s narrow opening range gave way to fresh lows testing 136-30 support. A bounce back to last week’s 138-00 area high is likely so long as this dip isn’t extended any deeper.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Having held a test of its 101.40 pullback limit Friday, the rally was free to resume, producing fresh recovery highs Monday testing 103.00.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday didn’t delay reacting up from Friday’s corrective dip to its 4.41 pullback limit, further suggesting that much more substantial rally is preparing to launch.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Net changes for the week were relatively limited, except for currencies and bonds. That doesn’t reflect the intraweek volatility, so it seems that momentum is getting wound up for some big moves.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s rejected bounce suggests this leg of the rally must be corrected before extending, but there is no required timing for the move.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Having reacted up from Thursday’s gap down, a bigger corrective bounce targeting 1.3855 is likely underway, but with no required timing.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday night’s weakness tested the 1289.00 sell signal, but held. Closing under 1285.00 Monday would be helpful confirmation to a break under 1289.00 that would signal a new downleg underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness tested and held the 19.25 pullback limit. Extending any lower Monday must be maintained through the close to begin signaling momentum has reversed down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s narrow ranging didn’t react down far enough to refuel buyers, so a probe above Thursday’s 138-04 high remains likely to hold, and to reverse back down.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s dip testing its 101.40 pullback limit resolved up Friday to probe back above 102.00, although not yet confirming the 104.00 retest is underway.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip held the decline’s 4.41 target that had already been met and held earlier in the week, prior to forming a bottom ahead of Thursday’s favorable EIA reaction. There is no unfinished business below, and the pattern is free to at least bounce back up to 4.71.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies fulfilled an interesting setup we’ve been tracking recently. Gold reacted well to its support/resistance. Natural Gas responded very well to a favorable setup at the prior close. Now let’s see whether Crude Oil will honor its pullback limit.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap up fulfilled the setup we’ve been tracking by then reversing back down under Tuesday’s prior high. Falling into negative territory wasn’t required. The assumption now is that the rally will correct.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping down Thursday reacted up almost instantly back to Tuesday’s high, as was suggested by the setup we’ve been tracking. There is no requirement to extend higher immediately, but some sort of a corrective phase should now begin before resuming the decline. So, a fresh low on Friday would be less likely to extend down and likelier to reverse positive before the close.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s open did what Wednesday’s close did not, which is break under the 1301.70-1303.00 pullback limit, invalidating Wednesday’s rally. Its drop to 1291.00 was retraced entirely to fill the gap back up to 1303.00. Reversing down again to 1293.00 hasn’t reversed momentum back down, but that is the likely resolution, signaled back under 1289.00 and confirmed under 1285.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite holding 19.75 support Wednesday, Thursday’s open gapped down back under “lower prior high” to test the 19.45 support that had launched Wednesday’s gap up to 20.00. Back above 19.75 would launch a new upleg, but there is otherwise no active signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending higher Thursday to fulfilled the highest calculable resistance above last week’s highs at 138-04. That was probably encouraged by a flight-to-safety while stocks fell through the morning. The balance of the session reacted down to 137-18, with potential for extending deeper down to 136-08 regardless of the ultimate resolution.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s test of the 101.40 pullback limit held, keeping alive the rally targeting a prior above the 104.00 prior high.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The constructive setup going into Thursday morning’s EIA report reacted up sharply on the news. There being no unfinished business below, and the past two sessions forming a key-reversal setup, closing above 4.41 suggests that the decline has ended. Closing above Thursday’s high on Friday would confirm.

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