Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s gap up had tested “higher prior lows” and filled a three-week old gap up to 1.1545, so reversing down without delay was necessary for the bounce to be considered only a correction. Thursday’s immediate weakness was credible for extending down intraday, which it did — a lot — to test the 1.1400 sell signal. Closing lower Friday would confirm at least a retest of recent lows is underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up to the pattern’s 1236.00 resistance had trended back down intraday to test its 1228.00 sell signal. Probing fresh lows overnight tested 1221.00, and now must close lower Friday to confirm the trend is reversing down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up had held a test of the 14.70 sell signal as resistance, before falling back down to fresh lows at 14.50. Thursday’s gap down to and through 14.50 extended under 14.40 to confirm at least an eventual third lower close is required.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s pre-open attack on the 138-04 buy signal was retraced intraday. Overnight backing-and-filling then attacked last Friday’s 137-02 prior intraday low. The next break beyond either is likely to extend in that direction.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s breakout had absorbed Wednesday’s pre-open surge that attacked the pattern’s 63.22 bounce limit, which was reversed to fresh lows and a fresh low close. Lower lows Thursday’s attack on 60.40 may have fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for at least an eventual third lower close, but the downleg’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces now hold 61.75 as resistance.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength wasn’t likely to produce fresh highs so much as recover from a knee-jerk reaction down. But there was neither, as the congestion persisted, still forming a position of strength to help recover from a correction.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up slightly extended only so far as to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 1.1475 opening gap. Neutralizing its attraction above allows almost any initial weakness Wednesday to be credible for extending down, signaled under 1.1400.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s slightly lower low started chipping away at 1228.00 support, after the “ineffectual optimism” of having hovered above it Monday.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s consolidation had delayed extending Friday’s break under the 14.70 sell signal, but Tuesday’s break under 14.50 compensated for the delay. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s narrow flat-to-higher ranging was followed by Tuesday’s narrow flat-to-lower ranging, all contained within Friday’s range to suggest that the first trending attempt will be false. Regardless, Friday’s break isn’t rejected, greeting Wednesday’s 30-year auction not from a position of strength, but still capable of absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not maintaining 63.22 overnight had no excuse to further delay resuming the decline, and Tuesday morning plunged to 61.31. A second consecutive lower close on Wednesday would confirm that at least an eventual third lower close is required.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow flat-to-higher ranging up to 3.58 did not even bother trying to reject Monday’s surge, which doesn’t necessarily help it to extend higher immediately, but does help to recover from a pullback to 3.42.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s reversal from fresh bounce highs back into negative territory tried extending deeper Sunday night to trigger the 1.1400 sell signal, but only to bounce Monday. Friday’s 1.1475 gap up could be tested before suggesting any greater upside.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging at or around the 1228.50 sell signal into Monday’s open, and any lower close would be credible for extending down without delay.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s break under the 14.70 sell signal fell to prior support at 14.60, where a bounce up to 14.70 was retraced to attack 14.60. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm another downleg attempt underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up and firming slightly Monday avoided extending lower, which helps to consider Friday’s drop as being an isolated temporary reaction to the Employment Situation report, and not necessarily disengaging from the recent inverse correlation to stocks.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s fresh lows attacking 62.50 were recovered in time to isolate the probe under the 63.20 pullback limit, allowing a recovery to form if triggered above 64,65, and confirmed without delay Tuesday.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Repeatedly testing the 3.25 buy signal last week never extended higher into the weekend. But holding the 3.17 pullback limit Friday morning and recovering to close again above 3.25 was rewarded Sunday night, compensating for the delay by gapping up above all prior highs to 3.50-3.57. Pullbacks have room down to 3,36-3,42 while maintaining upside momentum.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially extending the bounce up to 1.1495 stopped short of “higher prior lows” 1.1515 before intraday action formed a bearish key-reversal that reversed into negative territory down to 1.1410. The lows require at least a retest, which closing back under 1.1400 would signal is underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s narrow sideways ranging around 1235.00 doesn’t confirm Thursday’s steep rally, and keeps the door open to closing back under 1228.00 to resume the decline.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight dip initially attacked the 14.70 sell signal before rallying sharply Friday morning to attack 14.95. But that was only reversed through the afternoon to again attack 14.70.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A week of correlating to stocks’ direction seems to have disengaged Friday. This was despite initially probing under 138-04 more shallowly than Thursday test while stocks had gone higher. Nevertheless, crashing stocks were apparently looking elsewhere in their flight-to-safety, as fresh pullback lows fell to 137-12. Resuming the rally relies on not only avoiding a second consecutive lower close Monday, but also on Sunday night or Monday morning price action almost immediately rejecting Friday’s break to make it an anomaly.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already piercing Thursday’s lows Friday morning down to to 62.63, avoiding a new downleg depends on closing back above 63.35, and then not delaying a recovery leg.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down from Thursday’s retest of the 3.25 buy signal bounced off of its 3.17 prior low, which had also become a sell signal if pierced. The reaction was steep and substantial, reversing back up through 3.25 to retest Thursday’s 3.29 high.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s second consecutive confirming close under Tuesday’s breakout requires an eventual third lower close before a durable bottom can form. That unfinished business below didn’t prevent Thursday’s gap up back to the upper-end of the original 1.1430 target. Extending to 1.1463 intraday filled Monday and Friday’s gaps, so any initial weakness Friday would be likely to extend down into and out of the weekend.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s second consecutive confirming close under Tuesday’s break under the 1228.00 sell signal didn’t prevent Thursday’s gap up to and through 1228.00. Extending higher intraday tested 1239.00, with room to also test 1241.00 before suggesting more than a temporary detour before eventually fulfilling the minimum required third lower close.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down had held 14.28 support whose break would have confirmed lower lows remain in-play. That vulnerability was exploited overnight and Thursday’s gap up to and through 14.40 extending sharply higher intraday to test 14.80. Closing back under 14.70 would now resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still no catalyst for a flight-to-safety, Thursday morning wasn’t inhibited from probing under 138-04. But only temporarily as the balance of the session recovered to close back above 138-04 in positive territory– again, despite no catalyst, suggesting that the lower-end of a range is set.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout under 66.21 wasted no time fulfilling its minimum requirement for at least a third lower close on Thursday. Fresh lows at 63.11 could extend lower so long as bounces now hold 65.25 as resistance.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Closing just above the 3.25 buy signal Wednesday extended higher overnight to 3.32. But Thursday ‘s open was greeted unchanged while dipping back down to 3.21. The close recovered to unchanged, still in position to extend the recovery.