Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s three-day consolidation proved to be basing, which began launching a surge ahead of Tuesday’s Employment Situation report. A lot of buying pressure was expended without having based terribly much in the interim. Not confirming on Wednesday would be very bearish, but the trend is otherwise up.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Selling pressure resumed Tuesday, producing new lows testing 79.25, targeting 79.10-79.15. Regardless of its near-term support, a second consecutive lower close would confirm a new downleg underway.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Buying pressure resumed Tuesday, producing new highs testing 1.3795, targeting 1.3811-1.3833. Regardless of its near-term resistanc,e, a second consecutive higher close would confirm a new upleg underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Upticking ahead of Tuesday morning’s Employment Situation report then surged through 1321.50 resistance to test 1341.00 resistance. A second consecutive higher close above 1341.00 Wednesday would target 1362.00. Closing back under 1329.50 would signal that Tuesday’s surge was being retraced back to and through the consolidation under 1321.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging sharply Tuesday through the 22.40 outstanding gap above and then closing higher at 22.75 now targets 23.25 so long as an immediate reversal down doesn’t break under 22.05.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having held its 133-16 pullback limit through Monday and being likely to probe new highs, Tuesday’s reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report spiked up to 135-00. That’s sufficient to fulfill all upside potential, but closing back under 134-12 would signal at least a deeper pullback underway .

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
After gapping up, the drop extended Tuesday to probe under the 99.55 (basis Dec, 99.10 basis Nov) target which was met Monday. The next lower target at 96.35 is in-play so long as 99.55 now holds as resistance.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s decline extended to fresh lows Tuesday, now requiring there to be at least a third lower close, not necessarily consecutive, before any bottom can form.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s long-standing target was met Monday, but the pattern has potential for extending down more sharply very soon.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s narrow choppy ranging around unchanged offered no new signal, although the session high did hold 79.85 resistance.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s narrow choppy ranging around unchanged offered no new signal, although the session low did hold 1.3650 support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday was the second session since Thursday’s surge, and the second consecutive session not to extend the surge through its 1321.50 resistance, increasing the potential for retracing the rally.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s open gapped up from 21.88-21.95 resistance to test 22.35 intraday, whose resistance test should launch another drop signaled back under 21.88-21.95.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from last week’s rally extended down back under “lower prior highs,” attacking 133-16 which needs to hold any pullback as support.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The long-standing 99.10 target was met finally at Monday’s lows after gapping down. Bounces must now hold 100.35 as resistance if the drop intends to extend down to 95.80.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite gapping up sharply overnight to 3.83 resistance, Monday’s open was flat with Friday’s 3.74 close and the balance of the session trended down to probe under last week’s lows to 3.66. That more than undermines Friday’s recovery, so any buy signal would require that Tuesday immediately reject Monday’s slide.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies ended the week by defending new extremes that were recaptured suddenly Thursday. Either those represent sentiment extremes, or much more new territory will soon be captured.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s break back to the lows probed slightly lower overnight to 79.55. Friday’s intraday weakness wasn’t as low, and recovered back above Thursday’s low to avoid confirming a breakout. There is no new signal.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s break back to the highs probed slightly higher overnight above 1.3705. Friday’s intraday strength wasn’t as high, and reversed back to Thursday’s high to avoid confirming a breakout. There is no new signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s surge up to 1321.50 resistance was extended overnight momentarily to test 1328.00, but Friday reacted down to attack 1311.00, failing to confirm Thursday’s surge. That is not a sell signal, and a retest of Thursday’s highs is possible.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday largely continued ranging around 21.88-21.95, all but robbing Thursday’s bounce of its momentum, although there is no sell signal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Higher highs overnight extended Thursday’s rally, despite new highs already having fulfilled the rally’s long-standing minimum objective. There is no sell signal.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday afternoon’s inability to extend the morning’s break under 101.00 was a concern, which Friday’s open back above 101.00 confirmed. The balance of the session essentially drifted back down through 101.00, but not deeply enough to confirm the break targeting 99.10 necessarily remains intact.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows Friday morning under 3.69 were recovered by a surge back into positive territory and above Thursday’s highs to 3.78. Some retracement into the close still held enough of Thursday’s range to avoid giving sellers traction.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wow, Gold. Its $37 overnight surge would never have been predicted. But it does provide an excellent “teaching moment” of what can happen when trending attempts  continue holding tests of a relevant level, instead of breaking it.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday night’s plunge finally fulfilled the 80.05-80.10 pullback objective, and then some, probing fresh lows at 79.70-79.75. Back above 80.05-80.10 would signal a durable bottom is forming, initially attracted back up to this week’s highs. But a bottom must begin forming without delay to avoid extending down into a new downleg.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday night’s surge finally fulfilled the 1.3650 retest of recent highs up to 1.3575. Holding its test would allow a durable top to form, attracted back down to this week’s lows.  But a top must begin forming without delay to avoid extending up into a new upleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s recovery back above 1277.50 from testing 1269.00 had marginalized sellers until a bigger bounce developed. Wednesday night’s $37 surge exploited that hesitation much more than could have been anticipated. Extending higher Thursday morning also filled the gap back to recent highs and tested 1321.50 resistance.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up to test 22.20 Thursday was retraced to 21.70, and the balance of the session firmed back into 21-88-21.95 resistance. The recovery was premature for not yet retesting the week’s low, and for the prior two sessions having filled gaps above and holding their resistance. So, a close above 21-88-21.95 is needed before considering Thursday’s rally to be bullish.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s recovery from probing fresh lows extended sharply higher Wednesday night to probe fresh highs. The pattern’s long outstanding minimum objective for at least one more new high close has been fulfilled, but the extended interim consolidation give higher highs more room.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Although delayed by an extra bounce, 101.00 support was probed Thursday by gapping down from Wednesday’s test of the 102.35 bounce limit. Closing back above 101.00 at this stage would be bullish, but meanwhile the 99.10 target is in-play.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s reaction down from fresh highs produced a gap down Thursday. The session only ranged narrowly sideways, giving it potential to form an Island Reversal by gapping back up and extending higher Friday. Regardless, a close above 3.83 is still required to signal the rally is extending.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s bounce Wednesday didn’t gain any upside traction, but its timing suggests that sellers may have failed to retake control. Perhaps only immediately resuming the decline would be credible.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s attack on prior highs was too shallow to qualify as gaining traction. It was rejected deeply enough intraday to assure a retest of 80.05-80.10 support.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s deep gap down was recovered partially Tuesday, and then entirely before Wednesday’s open. Despite Wednesday morning’s plunge to a fresh low, most of that was recovered through the afternoon, still maintaining potential to retest recent highs.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s post-close probe above 1277.50 was retraced back down to 1269.00 intraday Wednesday. But its test held as support instead of breaking lower to resume the decline targeting 1241.00-1245.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday didn’t recover enough to signal momentum reversing up, keeping alive potential for at least retesting Tuesday’s low.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not confirming Monday’s break Tuesday did not preclude Wednesday from probing lower still down to 131-20. Word of the debt deal sparked a bounce back into positive territory that extended higher through the afternoon, probing above the 132-22 bounce limit . Extending above 133-00 would target new recovery highs.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
No sort of extension down under 101.00 developed prior to Wednesday’s bounce back up to the 102.35 bounce limit. While testing resistance into the close keeps alive the decline’s momentum,  it is not at all optimal, not when the pattern’s timing should be attacking its 99.10 target by now.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Recovering a shallower overnight dip to retest 3.83 resistance has formed an Ascending Triangle. Gapping up Wednesday and probing fresh highs at 3.87 was too shallow to be a false break, so it may have been a warning shot across the bow. The afternoon dipped back down to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s 3.80 close, still needing to close above 3.85 for confirmation of a breakout.

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