Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Currencies corrected Friday’s break on Monday, and the breaks resumed on Tuesday. Interestingly, the Euro was less impacted than the Dollar Index, so the reversals are not yet assured.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Having retraced Friday’s gap up Monday, without triggering a new sell signal, the bounce was free to resume Tuesday. And it did. The open’s gap up back to Friday’s 79.25 close extended back through the 79.55 prior highs to a fresh high testing 79.75. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a new rally is underway.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Having retraced Friday’s gap down Monday, without triggering a new buy signal, the drop was free to resume Tuesday. And it did, the open’s gap back to Friday’s 1.3170 close extended down to test 1.3080, still well above the 1.3020 prior lows. Closing any lower Wednesday should signal a new downleg underway.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s gap down to 1715.00 recovered briefly into positive territory up to 1730.00, but the morning’s low was probed down to 1713.80. More important is that the close was under 1720.00-1722.00, suggesting the decline has resumed.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s gap down to 33.40 was reversed up to probe positive territory at 33.85. But an afternoon dive probed fresh lows down to 33.25. The 33.40 confirmation to last week’s 33.60 sell signal was still being tested at the close.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s sellers gained no traction for their effort, having ended the day consolidating back in the 142-05/142-12 support. Tuesday’s open gapped up and extended higher to test prior highs at 143-16. There is no active signal.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s open gapped up and extended higher to test 101.85. Despite retracing the open entirely, the session still ended the day with a test of fresh highs at 101.00. The 103.00 and 111.00 targets remain in play so long as 100.00 holds as support.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Signs of life Tuesday, as the open gapped up and extended higher into the 2.50-2.55 area. Closing above 2.61 Wednesday would confirm the consolidation had ended, triggering its accumulation targeting 3.03.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil captured two headlines Monday. One, for reacting to heightened tensions between Israel and Iran. And second, for a glitch that briefly halted afternoon trading. The halt has passed, but the tensions are rising.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s gap up never extended higher, making its retracement likely. Monday’s open did gap down to test Thursday’s highs, but not to fill Thursday’s gap. Attacks on the lows are possible, but not signaled.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s gap down to 1.3185 extended no further intraday, making its recovery likely. In fact, Monday’s open gapped back up, not quite to Thursday’s 1.3288 close, but still holding above Friday’s 1.3200 high. Now closing under 1.3165 would signal a drop back to recent lows in the 1.3045 area. The rally could resume first, but there is no attractive buy signal at this time.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s session fluctuated alternatively around Friday’s close, ending the day almost unchanged. Ultimately, 1720.00-1722.00 held its noon hour test as support, but did not launch a new upleg, so there remains potential to extend the downleg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A close under 33.40 is still needed to confirm last week’s break under 33.60 has reversed momentum down. Intraday lows attacked the confirmation, but it held. The hesitation was not exploited by a recovery, so there remains potential to extend the downleg. But the gap up to 34.00 may be filled first.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Gapping down Monday back under 142-12 to test 142-05 gained no traction. The balance of the morning bounced to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 142-30 close. The afternoon ranged narrowly between 142-05 and 142-12. Another bounce cannot be discounted, but almost any close under 142-05 is likely to resume the drop to 140-00.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Gapping up above 99.15, probing 100.00, and ultimately closing at fresh highs all contributed to a rejection of the ongoing range below. So long as 100.00 and 99.15 hold as support, 103.00 and potentially 111.00 are in-play.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) A probe of recent lows did not gain traction. Nor was the probe rejected. Closing above the 2.50 area would be of interest, but there is otherwise no active signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Rumors (that I was spreading) of the Euro’s impending demise don’t seem to have been exaggerated, after all. Not too much, at least.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Several days of ranging around the 79.70 prior lows without breaking lower were a modest contrast to the Euro’s ongoing probe of slightly lower lows. That proved enough to merit gapping back up above 79.10 Friday. The session did not trend past the open’s gap, so only gapping up above the 79.55 prior high may avoid a  retest of 79.70 before extending higher.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s early morning fresh high at 1.3292 printed well within the horseshoes and hand grenades definition of being “close” to the 1.3333 target. Apparently it was close enough not to prevent a slide back to 1.3157 on doubts arising over Thursday’s Greek debt accord. The entire session developed under the 1.3200 prior highs that had put into play 1.3333. Closing under 1.3100 would signal a new downleg underway.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s post-close drop back under 1729.00 extended down overnight for an opening test of 1706.40. A bounce into the close was still testing the pivotal 1720.00-1722.00 area, this time as resistance, while leaving the open’s gap outstanding to attract price back down, confirming the 1740.00 sell signal remains intact.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite gapping down sharply and testing prior lows back to 34.06, Friday’s close was still in the process of testing the 33.60 sell signal as resistance. I would tend to give sellers a benefit of the doubt if only because Gold’s pattern remains bearish. Nevertheless, closing Monday under 33.40 would be very helpful to confirm a new downleg is underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Another close under 141-00 was going to be difficult if not broken immediately Friday. Falling stocks overnight made it impossible. A gap up above 142-12 eventually extended higher to test 143-00. Just bouncing to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s ~142-05 close could have still resolved down. But now another close under 142-12 and 142-05 is needed to resume the decline. There is otherwise no active signal.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Gapping down and then closing once again Friday under 99.00 has kept alive the potential for resuming the decline. Recovering 100.50 would otherwise be bullish.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Friday’s narrow ranging supported by 2.44 did not allow a sell signal to trigger. And it further delayed triggering any accumulation of the week’s pattern.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight One good swing deserves another… Volatility in Gold Thursday came one day after triggering a sell signal. An intraday rally to new relative highs was retraced entirely to probe under Wednesday’s lows. And the sell signal remains intact.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Still ranging at recent lows, without sellers gaining traction. It’s not a buy signal, but the relative stability does suggest a turning point coming soon among currencies.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Another fresh high Thursday, coming nominally close to the 1.3333 target. Interestingly, very little play on the hyped Greek debt accord. Not sure what would push price through its target if that news barely attacked it.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1740.00 bounce limit was tested into Thursday’s open. It was sharply exceeded intraday up to 1755.50, leaving outstanding a gap back to Wednesday’s 1731.00 close. It was already filled — a reversal back to 1740.00 extended down to 1728.00. Just closing under 1729.00 Friday would confirm the new downleg underway that was triggered by Wednesday’s close under 1740.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) While Thursday’s price action tracked Gold’s wild intraday ride, it lacked the fireworks. The retest of prior highs did continue the pattern of outperformance, although the missing fireworks suggests that Silver is simply more complacent. Regardless, closing under 33.60 still would signal a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s open gapped down and extended well under 141-28 and under 141-00. Just closing under 141-28 confirms the 140-00 target remains in-play. But another close under 141-00 may be difficult near-term if not broken immediately Friday.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s rejection of the open’s gap up kept alive the last potential for resuming the decline. Thursday’s gap up to Wednesday’s ~100.00 area high — and then hovering there throughout the day without extending higher or retracing — still allows for resuming the decline, if only because a clear buy signal has not triggered.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Despite spiking up to 2.58 on EIA news, the reaction was retraced entirely back to the 2.48 area. The delay in exploiting the past week’s accumulative action is starting to suggest it wasn’t accumulation, at all. The buy signal remains at 2.61.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight One day following Gold’s quick rally to its bounce target, a deep reaction down suggests a bigger downleg may be beginning. But, one more piece of evidence must come…

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s narrow ranging around Tuesday’s close helped to confirm that sellers gained no traction for their efforts. An actual break lower is still possible, but its origin — this narrow ranging at prior lows — would require the break’s recovery.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s close above 1.3200 may have put into play 1.3333. But Wednesday’s narrow ranging around Tuesday’s close did not confirm it. The breakout may yet extend higher anyway, but the move’s unconfirmed breakout would make the move very temporary.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s test of the 1748.00 bounce target extended higher overnight to 1754.00. A dip into Wednesday’s open reacted up from 1741.80 to probe above 1748.00 again. But its reaction finally got on with resuming the reversal. A drop to and through the 1740.00 sell signal tested 1726.00 and 1729.00.A new downleg is under so long as 1740.00 is not recovered through a close.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Fresh highs overnight reacted down into Wednesday’s open. Lower lows tested 33.75 support, but a close under 33.60 is needed to even begin triggering a new downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Fresh lows overnight down to 141-23 recovered back up to and through 141-28 into the open. The balance of the session ranged sideways testing 142-12 resistance, barely piercing positive territory. The range could still expand up to 142-28 without robbing the current drop of its momentum.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s high above 99.00 used up all available room for a corrective bounce. Closing any higher would suggest a bigger rally underway. Wednesday’s gap up to the 100.00 area reacted down quickly back into Tuesday’s range, where the balance of the session ranged narrowly. Now a close above 100.50 is needed to signal a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Ranging narrowly Wednesday between 2.44-2.51 did not gain traction in either direction. But it also further delayed a recovery, just when the recovery’s further delay would start becoming bearish. Thursday’s EIA report may be the last opportunity to seal a bottom and trigger a new rally leg.

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