Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap… Notice that ETFs have been added. Please add any others that you find of interest into the comments section for this blog post. Thank you!

Eurodollar Mar (EC, ETF: FXE) The Euro’s probes above 1.3035 since Thursday have retraced to dip back under 1.3020 support. Breaking under 1.3020 now puts into play a probe under last week’s 1.2945 low. Closing under 1.2955 would confirm the downleg is extending to its next target(s) at 1.2650 and potentially to 1.2345.

Gold Feb (GC, ETF: GLD) The bounce into week’s end was not expected to gain traction. That didn’t prevent Monday’s early-morning $13 spike up to 1611.50. But it was retraced soon enough back down to and through the bounce’s 1595.00-1598.00 origin. The attraction under 1589.00 to fill the gap back back down to Thursday’s 1575.00 close should continue to inhibit bounces, or at least prevent them from gaining traction — although meanwhile there is room for one more bounce to fresh highs testing 1620.00. I would not position long for a bounce, but would consider fading it.

Silver Mar (SI, ETF: SLV) Having fulfilled the minimum target of last week’s inverted Head & Shoulders, the pattern was vulnerable to resuming the decline. In fact, Monday’s gap down under Friday’s 29.30 low extended to almost 28.70. Closing any lower Tuesday would put into play new lows targeting 27.90 and potentially 27.05.

30-year Treasury Mar (US, ETF: TLT) Friday’s test of the 145’14 target had room for noise above it up to 145’28. It was probed up to 146’08. Back under 145’22 would suggest a bigger dip underway targeting 145’08. But a close under 144’12 is still the minimum requirement to launch a new downleg.

Crude Oil Mar (CL, ETF: USO) No change to the 95.25 buy signal that must be recovered on a closing basis to rob sellers of their traction.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s session narrowly avoided forming an Island Reversal out of Wednesday’s session. That did not prevent Friday’s open from extending the pullback. But it inhibited Friday’s gap down from extending. In fact, the gap back up to Thursday’s close was filled.

Gold Feb (GCG) A third bounce off of testing 1568.00 support — the biggest bounce, yet — once again probed the 1595.00 bounce limit. This time momentarily touched 1603.50 before reversing back down to end the session ranging around 1595.00. This bounce is still not expected to gain traction into anything more durable, and filling the gap down to Thursday’s 1577.00 close is likely to visit new lows down to 1556.50.

Silver Mar (SIH) The low’s inverted Head & Shoulders produced a rally Thursday night tat stopped 7 cents short of touching its 30.00 objective. Regardless, the bounce may extend to higher targets at 30.37 and 31.00 so long as pullbacks now hold 29.80 as support. Closing under 29.10 would signal a probe underway of new lows initially targeting 27.95.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Stock market weakness enabled the rally through 143’04 Tuesday to hold 143’26 support Thursday. But there was no such weakness while the rally extended up to its 145’14 target Friday. Regardless, buying pressure has been satisfied. There is room to range around 145’14 up to 145’28, but closing any higher would extend the rally significantly. Closing under 144’12 would signal momentum reversing down for at least a multi-day correction.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) The opportunity for rallying Friday would have triggered by opening above 94.50. But an overnight probe above it was already retracing into the open, and extended down to 92.95. The close recovered back above 94.00, which is also back above Thursday’s lows. So, sellers expended more energy without gaining traction for their efforts. Now, closing above 95.25 would trigger a rally underway.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s open gapped down back to Tuesday’s late 81.00 high, forming the basis for an Island Reversal. Despite extending down initially, a bounce to fresh session highs probed back into Wednesday’s range, invalidating the Island pattern. Closing back above that bounce’s 81.13 high would resume the rally targeting fresh highs above 81.41, and closing under the bounce’s 80.77 origin would trigger a multi-session decline.

Gold Feb (GCG) Wednesday’s post-close drop to retest the morning’s lows around 1568.00 launched a bigger overnight bounce up to 1596.50. But another morning dive Thursday probed 1568.00 down to 1562.50. The balance of the session ranged sideways without buyers gaining traction. The pattern is not a Double Bottom, so it is unlikely to launch a durable rally. But another new low is possible.

Silver Mar (SIH) Fresh lows overnight fell to 28.12 before recovering overnight back to Wednesday’s 29.25 post-close high. Thursday’s intraday low held Wednesday’s 28.50 low to form an Inverted Head & Shoulders that could probe 30.00 so long as 28.85 now hold as support.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Wednesday’s probe above 143’26 consolidated Thursday, presumably prior to extending the rally to 145’15.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) The decline’s momentum remained intact Thursday. A momentary bounce up to 96.00 reacted down to fresh lows under 95.00 that extended lower to 94.00 after the close. Opening Friday back above 94.50 would be vulnerable to extending sharply higher through Monday morning to at least test 97.40.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Wednesday’s gap up to new highs probed higher highs briefly intraday. But the afternoon essentially ranged around the open’s print. A gap down under 80.20 would form an Island Reversal of Wednesday’s range, targeting a corrective dip down to 79.55. The trend otherwise remains intact and next targeting 81.25.

Gold Feb (GCG) Sharply lower lows under 1635.00 fulfilled the next major objective at 1568.00. A corrective bounce up to 1594.00 resolved back down to test 1568.00 support throughout the afternoon, hovering optimistically above the morning’s low. Lower lows around 1568.00 have room for noise down to 1556.50, whose break would avoid another corrective bounce up to 1600.00.

Silver Mar (SIH) Gapping down from Tuesday’s 31.25 close extended lower Wednesday to 28.53. There is potential for extending down to 27.40 so long as bounces now hold 30.10 as resistance.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Wednesday’s flight-to-quality extended above 143’04 and even closed above 143’26 to make 145’14‘s test likely. Closing Thursday back under 143‘26 would undermine Wednesday’s rally, but not reverse it or invalidate 145’14.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Tuesday’s surge up to 101.55 in reaction to closing the Straits of Hormuz had seemed somewhat singular and muted compared to the gravity of the news. Wednesday’s gap down erased all of Tuesday’s gainand extended sharply lower to 94.65. Closing back above 97.40 would qualify as a buy signal, but there is otherwise no active signal.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tuesday’s surge sliced through the 79.80 objective and extended higher intraday to test 80.45. There isn’t much room to tolerate a pullback without triggering a bigger dip to 79.65 and possibly 79.55.

Gold Feb (GCG) A corrective bounce up to 1681.70 reacted down to fresh lows at 1654.40 intraday, and then plunged to 1625.50 following the afternoon’s FOMC announcement. This fulfilled the next lower target at 1635.00. Closing Wednesday under 1635.00 would confirm that 1600.00‘s test is next in-play. A bounce has room up to 1660.00 without buyers gaining traction.

Silver Mar (SIH) Monday’s test of 31.00 largely held as support until Tuesday’s FOMC announcement triggered a probe of fresh lows to under 30.70. No buy signal will form without first recovering to close back above 31.00.

30-year Treasury Mar (USH) Potential for a much bigger bounce up to 143’04 had been avoided last week, but Tuesday’s early Euro plunge and later stock plunge drove bonds higher anyway. The resolution to Wednesday’s 30-year auction should prove whether 143’04‘s test will launch a new upleg, which remains possible, or more likely trigger another productive downleg by closing back under 142’22.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Monday’s rejection of Friday afternoon’s recovery down to 98.00 was itself rejected by Tuesday’s steep surge up to 101.60. Although much of the surge was maintained through the close, the surge did seem somewhat muted compared to the gravity of the news triggering it. Regardless, the 103.00 objective remains intact.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) If Tuesday’s bounce was at all bullish, then it was its intraday high stopping pessimistically short of actually filling the gap back to Friday’s close. But it is not a buy signal, not before filling the gap back down to Monday’s 3.28 open.

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