Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight strength ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report only attacked Thursday’s pre-open highs before greeting the news back at unchanged around 1.1700. Probing Thursday’s lows down to 1.1630 was recovered back to almost unchanged. Not already reversing down into the weekend suggests the corrective bounce can still test 1.1745-1.1755.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness spiked down in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, and gapped down to Tuesday’s 1297.00 low. Probing it momentarily down to 1293.00 was recovered to attack Thursday’s 1305.00 close. Closing under the Tuesday-Friday lows would resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report in decline blipped-down in reaction but stopped optimistically short of touching Tuesday’s 16.31 low. Bouncing back into positive territory tested 16.45-16.55 as resistance.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Growing potential for a retest of Tuesday’s 146-23 high was avoided by the reaction down to Friday’s Employment Situation report testing the 144-20 sell signal. Fluctuating around the signal through the morning  .

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Returning intraday to the 66.63 low of Thursday’s gap down prevented sellers from gaining traction. But it didn’t prevent probing lower overnight, and Friday back down to Tuesday’s 65.75 low. Another close above 67.90 is needed to resume the recovery.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s break above the multi-session range was a breakout, but it wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Friday. At least an eventual higher close at 3.00 or more remains outstanding from the prior week’s confirmed breakout.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Higher highs overnight attacked the 1.1755 maximum corrective bounce limit up to 1.1738. Thursday’s open gapped up only slightly above Wednesday’s high to 1.1700, and the session developed largely around Wednesday’s high. A retest of Wednesday night’s high is possible before retesting this week’s lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to 1311.50 probed the gap back to last Wednesday’s 1308.50 close, which had contained the prior two sessions’s highs. It was retraced before the open to avoid early strength that otherwise would have suggested a bigger bounce underway before resuming the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight test of the original 16.60 sell signal was somewhat duplicated post-open Thursday, but held, keeping alive the likelihood for resuming the decline into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still fluctuating within Tuesday’s wide range, and overlapping flat-to-higher around Wednesday’s inside day, Thursday firmed to within a quarter-point of filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 146-08 close. There’s still room down to 144-20 before signaling a bigger pullback underway, which Thursday’s bounce has helped to refuel for a deeper objective.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down overnight to Wednesday’s post-close API data was retraced Thursday morning in reaction to the holiday-delayed EAI report. Largely retraced, a dime short of Wednesday’s 68.20 close. And only briefly retraced, reacting back down to probe 50-cents under the 67.30 open, which held its retest. But having failed to confirm Wednesday’s recovery attempt, the rally must reassert itself into the weekend.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s gap up above the two prior days’ multi-session range extended to attack prior highs, and the outstanding 3.00 objective. That also filled the gap back up to Friday’s 2.97 close, which reacted down intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday has left outstanding Tuesday’s gap open under all prior lows, and the gap back to Wednesday’s close, both of which should be filled before a durable rally can form. Meanwhile, being deeply oversold is vulnerable to snapping back up, substantially albeit temporary, especially if the downside catalysts are rectified while the upside momentum of this natural bounce can be leveraged by the news. Already, the gap back to Friday’s 1.1675 close has been filled at Wednesday’s high, with room up to 1.1755.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Aug, which trades at a $5.20 premium to Jun…] Wednesday’s inside day held the same 1308.50 resistance that Wednesday’s highs had tested, which filled the gap back up to Friday’s close. That had neutralized upside momentum from recovering Tuesday morning’s dip, which had bounced prematurely short of filling the gap back down to last Wednesday’s close. Initial strength Thursday would be credible for having absorbed sellers Wednesday, but not necessarily reliable for extending higher without maintaining fresh highs through the close.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up to 16.45 immediately recovered Tuesday’s high. Extending higher filled the gap back to Friday’s 16.55 close. The original 16.60 sell signal remained intact, but the decline should resume without much further delay to maintain that the upside action is counter-trend.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having fulfilled the retest of 146-00 up to 146-23, already reversing back down to the 144-20 pullback limit overnight suggested that a deeper pullback down to “lower prior highs” at 143-08 was underway. But intraday action was only a narrowly ranging inside day. The interim low’s break is still a valid sell signal, but now its pullback would more likely target 143-20. Meanwhile, until triggering the reversal another test of the 146-00 area remains possible.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s rally eventually probed the 67.90 buy signal. Extending higher Thursday to close above 69.00 would confirm the pullback had ended, or at least this stage, opening the door to retesting the highs and higher. That’s assuming Thursday’s holiday-delayed EIA report doesn’t react down to fresh lows, and recovers any initially negative knee-jerk reaction.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap down to “lower prior highs” wasn’t rejected Wednesday, as the session’s inside day only ranged narrowly. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, but an initially negative knee-jerk reaction that recovers into positive territory should also reverse up and begin the recovery.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s session wasn’t conducive to immediately forming a market bottom, let alone to reversing up. Extending down Monday gapped open to fresh lows Tuesday that also entrench the decline and delay the next bottoming opportunity.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s rally to 1306.00 was reversed down Tuesday to 1291.50, nearly filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s close. It was recovered already intraday to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 1303.50 close. Sellers were prevented from gaining traction, while near-by attractions above and below were neutralized. There’s no requirement to break either way, but closing under 1298.50 would resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday retested last Wednesday’s 16.35 low, which was still being tested at the close. A fresh low close would likely resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The rally extended sharply higher to test 146-00 in an overnight flight-to-safety. Its pullback potential to 144-20 was already being tested at Tuesday’s open. A retest of overnight highs is possible or even likely so long as the pullback limit continues to hold. In fact, it’s just several ticks away as of Tuesday afternoon.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having broken the 71.30 optimal pullback limit last week and then extended lower, extending even lower after the weekend to 65.80 was neither required nor surprising. Any outstanding target above isn’t going to be recovered immediately, but the more timely question is whether the pullback can now end. The nearest buy signal is 67.90, and should be lowered Wednesday.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, which trades at a 3-cent premium to Jun]… Friday’s fresh high intraday had failed to make a new closing high, which last week’s confirmed breakout still requires. That didn’t prevent Tuesday’s gap down back to “lower prior highs” at 2.88, which should hold as support to launch a test of 3.00.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce had touched “higher prior lows” so that Wednesday’s 1.1731 opening gap could be retested and its attraction below neutralized. Its attraction below was more powerful than that, and Friday opened at fresh lows down to 1.1692, testing 1.1663. The possible bottoming pattern never completed, and the nearest buy signal is now back above 1.1750.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up to the 1298.50 buy signal Thursday extended higher to qualify as a breakout, despite leaving plenty of unfinished business below at the week-long channel. It still has potential to extend higher and test 1316.00-1317.50, despite Friday not confirming Thursday’s breakout. Otherwise, closing back under 1298.50 would signal the breakout was false and already reversing down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up back above Tuesday’s 16.55 low Thursday and extending to test Tuesday’s 16.70 high would have signaled the trend detouring up, but Friday needed to close higher for confirmation. Instead, a blip-up was reversed back down to test 16.55 through the afternoon. Almost any initial weakness coming out of the weekend would at least be vulnerable to resuming the decline, if not likely.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down intraday from Thursday’s test of the original 143-07 sell signal had held above its 142-20 pullback limit, which was pierced by 1 tick overnight before resuming the rally. Friday’s gap up to 143-12 extended intraday to attack 143-30. Now 142-20 is a sell signal if broken through the close.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from Tuesday’s 72.90 high was optimal when Wednesday’s low held 71.00 above Friday’s pullback low. Thursday’s gap down under both could have been recovered if done immediately and maintained, but its immediate recovery attempt was retraced into the close. Thursday’s session has proved to be a paradigm shift, made clearer by Friday’s gap down to 68.75 and extension to 67.50. There’s still room for noise at 67.35, but back above 68.90 would start to trigger an upleg targeting 70.40 if not also the rally’s 74.20 target.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s fresh high was retraced to spend the afternoon fluctuating around Thursday’s close, leaving outstanding the confirmed breakout’s eventual third higher close minimum requirement.