Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s correct bounce and Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up to 1.1845‘s original sell signal reacted down sharply during Draghi’s press conference. The reaction collapsed to probe under 1.1790, whose break would resume the larger decline.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close surge in reaction to FOMC had required Thursday’s pullbacks to hold 1255.00 to maintain the upside momentum, or at least 1251.00 to avoid invalidating the surge’s recovery attempt — the latter can still be rejected since it was only being tested and not yet recovered before FOMC.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging after Wednesday’s FOMC news required pullbacks to hold 16.05 as support to maintain the upside momentum, or at least 15.85 to avoid invalidating the surge’s recovery attempt — the latter can still be rejected since it was only being tested and not yet recovered before FOMC.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still overlapping the 152-18/153-10 range’s upper-end after Wednesday’s FOMC reaction wasn’t decisive enough to avoid more backing-and-filling overnight. But Thursday morning firmed further to probe above Wednesday’s highs, whose recovery through the close would confirm a new rally leg underway.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s open gapped down from Wednesday’s close under the 56.80 sell signal, but immediately bounced to test 56.80 as resistance. The 55.50 target remains intact.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already probing fresh lows overnight didn’t help the pattern that was greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. The reaction wasn’t dramatic as the two-day range persisted, offering potential to form a bottom.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s break back to prior lows didn’t extend through the close, which Wednesday morning’s bounce exploited. So did the FOMC policy statement, surging to test 1.1790 resistance. Back under 1.1750-1.1760 would likely resume the decline.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s CPI report triggered a surge that firmed up to 1251.00 resistance, and the FOMC policy statement triggered another after the close testing 1255.50. Now holding 1251.00 as support would allow a recovery to form.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
No attraction or unfinished business below being in-play left a vulnerability to reacting favorably to CPI. Greeting the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement at 15.80-15.90 resistance reacted favorably to probe 16.05. Holding 15.90 as support would allow the recovery to become a rally.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness wasn’t any more productive than Tuesday’s intraday dip. The lower-end of  the 152-18/153-10 range defined the open, and launched a rally to its uppoer-end in reaction to Wednesday’s CPI. The afternoon FOMC statement probed even higher, at least momentarily, while awaiting the Fed chair’s quarterly Q&A.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s reaction to its gap up attacking 59.00 was reversed down to 56.80. Wednesday’s gap up also reversed down, probing under 56.80. Closing under it puts into play the 55.50 pullback objective.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s intraday rejection of its gap up had probed new lows, which were consolidated through Wednesday morning No new signal is available.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s bounce had held 1.1815 resistance and closed back at 1.1790 support to prevent the bounce from gaining traction. Which Tuesday exploited by gapping down and extending lower intraday to fresh multi-week lows attacking 1.1710.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Post-close weakness could hardly wait to extend lower Tuesday morning to test 1238.50. Closing back above 1251.00 would now signal the trend reversing up, but it meanwhile remains down in an ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already having tested the 15.65-15.70 area overnight last week would have sufficed as a low, but it was retested anyway Tuesday, and slightly lower. Closing back above 15.80 and 15.90 would now signal the trend reversing up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s failed test of 153-10 had been reversed to almost fill the gap back down to Friday’s close. Overnight weakness extended lower Tuesday morning to briefly probe almost a half-point under last week’s 152-20 low. Wedneday’s FOMC statement isn’t being greeted from the position of strength that would have formed by recovering Monday morning’s high, but a negative reaction is even less assured.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing higher overnight and gapping up Tuesday was just short of prior highs around 59.00. That pessimism wasn’t constructive, as it price immediately began reversing down for the day to close negative. That keeps alive the potential for completing the pullback under 56.80 to 55.50. But closing back above 57.40 would be entirely credible for resuming the rally.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up was too shallow and premature to form a bottom. That didn’t necessitate Tuesday’s late-morning plunge to fresh lows, which further delays any sort of bottoming pattern, let alone recovery.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Sunday night extended higher through Monday morning to probe the decline’s 1.1790 bounce limit up to 1.1815. Any higher would next target 1.1840. But dipping into the afternoon returned to test 1.1790.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-higher Sunday night challenged 1251.20 resistance. Closing above 1255.50 would start to signal a bottom is forming. Otherwise, fresh lows would next target 1226.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s firming wasn’t repeated intraday Monday, but neither was it rejected. Having fulfilled potential to 15.65, pullbacks must hold 15.75 to enable a bottom to form, which would be triggered back above 15.90 and 16.05.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s initial probe above the 153-10 buy signal was ongoing into the afternoon, and not winning, becoming more attracted back down to Friday’s close than to the next higher resistance at 154-08.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging flat-to-higher Sunday night above the 57.40 buy signal was not rejected intraday, and extended higher to probe 58.00. Closing back under 56.80 is still the nearest sell signal, while the nearest upside attraction would retest recent highs on the way to 61.05.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up from Thursday-Friday’s narrow overlapping intraday range didn’t extend higher, and can’t signal a recovery without first retesting the lower range from above.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially extending down more aggressively to the 3-week old prior low at 1.1780 all but confirmed the 5-week rally’s back is broken, and targeting a complete retracement to at least retest 1.1580.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursay’s lat selling tested targeted support at 1253.00, greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness. Its reaction plunged further to test 1244.50, still not forming a bottom or buy signal.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Almost all of the 15.65-15.70 target was tested before Friday’s Employment Situation report. Reaction to the news wasn’t substantial, and only firmed around Thursday’s range. The 15.90 intraday high stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 15.97 close. Target met, and held, and ineffectual pessimism, all suggest that initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s late break under the 153-10 sell signal could have been last-minute pessimism ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. That would be potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Perhaps it was, confining the reaction to a narrow range around unchanged, and not confirming the prior day’s break. Early strength would be credible for testing 154-00, which must be recovered to start signaling momentum reversing up.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying overnight gapped up to what had been the prior rally’s 57.40 buy signal, which is now the bounce limit to maintain the current downleg’s 55.50 target area that would be triggered back under 56.80.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrowly ranging session creates a multi-session range with Thursday. It also fails to confirm Thursday as a breakout. Closing higher or lower would trigger a new breakout.