Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday to the 1.1650 target that Friday had exceeded does suggest the probe above it was a blow-off top. Meanwhile, potential to 1.1730 wasn’t fulfilled by extending Friday’s rally, suggesting that a top is now forming.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher Sunday night extended Monday to within $1 of the 1259.70 target. Reacting down intraday filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, but didn’t reverse momentum down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming overnight helps to confirm the 16.70 target remains intact. It also enabled a gap up to help absorbe post-open selling pressure without damaging the rally’s chart.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Sunday night extended down Monday to 154-05, but didn’t reverse the trend down, as 155-06 remains in-play.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Sunday night needed to close back under 46.25 for optimal confirmation the reaction down remains intact, and it was still being tested into the close. Breaking lower would next target 45.15 and probably its break, too.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having extended back under both recent gaps at 3.05 and 3.02, a retest of 2.92 became likelier. Sunday night essentially opened there and then probed lower Monday morning. Closing above 2.95 would trigger the next upleg, but closing first under 2.88 would make a recovery unlikely.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming overnight extended higher Friday to a new high, which suggests there will be follow-through Monday morning to 1.1730-1.1750 before a durable reversal down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing slightly higher overnight was enough to gap up at Friday’s open. The first breakout from an outside day in this setup is likely to extend, so 1259.70 is now in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday above the upper-objective’s 16.35 high suggests the next leg is underway and targeting 16.70.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s late dip had not reversed the intraday rally, keeping upside momentum alive. Rallying overnight gapped up to Thursday’s high and extended higher through the morning, to within a quarter-point of this leg’s 155-06 target.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ongoing suspicions about the recovery above 46.25 and 47.25 were already being confirmed by Thursday’s close back under the latter. Friday morning’s extension slid under the former. Support at 45.15 should be tested next, and its break would allow the low’s consolidation to tested for a more credible bottom to form.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The potential if not likelihood for filling gaps down to at least 3.02 and possible 2.98 began to be fulfilled overnight. The lower gap was filled by extending down deeper Friday morning. Back above 3.05 would signal that the bottom had fully formed a durable rally leg was underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping ahead of Thursday morning’s ECB events tested almost the entirety of 1.1510-1.1525 as support, where any lower would have signaled the trend reversing down. Instead the support test launched a surge to fresh highs, fulfilling the 1.1650 target and extending even higher to 1.1695.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s mini-flash crash had tested the original 1236.00 objective as support and recovered up to the 1244.00 objective. Thursday’s retest of the flash crash low was also recovered, to a fresh high above 1247.00 forming an “outside day.” The prior high was still being overlapped. Not immediately reversing back down Friday would signal the recovery is extending, with potential to 1259.75.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially dipping overnight to retest Wednesday’s mini-flash crash low, Thursday morning recovered back up to more thoroughly test the entire 16.32-16.35 objective’s range. Closing back under 16.15 would signal at least a correction underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having rested on Wednesday, Thursday’s requirement to resume the rally was fulfilled by quickly breaking to fresh highs and above 154-02 resistance, extending to 154-22 on the way to the 155-06 target.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep which trades at a .20-.25 premium to Aug…] Initially probing above 47.25 Thursday was retraced into the afternoon, still not suggesting a new rally leg has begun. This continues to leave 46.25 as the nearest sell signal.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report blipped-up to a fresh high at 3.11 and then dripped back down to the 3.05 buy signal. Closing above 3.11 would signal the rally is resuming, but I’m not convinced that the gap back down to 3.02 won’t be filled first.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday leaves unfinished business above at Tuesday’s close, in addition to the open’s gap up above all prior highs.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight mini flash crash was recovered into Wednesday’s open to retest the 1244.00 target that had held its test Tuesday. It held its test Wednesday, too, and back under 1236.00 would now signal the trend reversing back down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overcoming an overnight dip into Wednesday’s open only retested Tuesday’s highs in the 16.32-16.34 range. Now closing back under 16.02 would signal the trend reversing back down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The recovery wasn’t quick to resume Wednesday, but didn’t have to, as the durable bottom has already formed. Any reaction down — even an intraday probe of prior lows — would be likely to recover and to resume the rally.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s post-close bobble in reaction to API was invisible at Wednesday’s open. Wednesday’s reaction to API was more obvious, surging back to the range’s 47.00 upper-end. Now closing back under 46.00 would signal momentum reversing down, which would be confirmed under 44.90.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Shallow higher highs Wednesday morning tried to outrun the attraction back to 3.01 that could inhibit the recovery.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A strong reaction to the US Senate punting on healthcare triggered an overnight surge through 1.1525 that gapped up sharply Tuesday, now targeting 1.1650 so long as 1.1575 now holds as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher overnight extended Tuesday morning to attack the next higher objective at 1244.00. Above 1245.50 could extend up to 1260.00, but back under 1234.00 would now target 1222.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s static session that didn’t extend its gap up was nevertheless extended Tuesday to test 16.35 resistance. Two consecutive sessions of gapping up are vulnerable to a correction down to 15.95.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slow-playing the retest of the 153-00 buy signal ended Tuesday morning as it broke higher to probe fresh recovery highs at 153-30. Above 154-02 would confirm a much bigger rally underway, next targeting 155-06.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping back down to or toward 46.00 Tuesday essentially confirms the inflection point is no longer predictive. But a break under 44.90 is still needed to signal a retest of the low’s consolidation range so that a durable bottom can form.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday morning all but seals a bottom. Not trending up intraday does keep alive the potential for reactions down to fill gaps or to test “lower prior highs” before extending higher.