The First Trade

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
[NOTE: chaRTroom IS A NEW FORMAT, LOGIN EARLY PLEASE]

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s relatively shallow gap down probed the 2350.00 bias-down signal by 1 point. The offsetting test of its 2358.00 bias-up signal was soon fulfilled. A pullback to 2352.00 was recovered to trigger the afternoon’s 2355.75 bias-up signal. Its 2362.00 bias-up target was left outstanding at the close, which had only attacked Tuesday’s 2360.50 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex open attacked Wednesday’s 2355.75 bias-up signal as support and firmed back up to 2358.00. Asia’s opens triggered a spike up that immediately fulfilled the intraday 2362.00 objective. Its gradual reaction down reached 2358.00 well before midnight. Europe’s opens triggered a break lower, which has extended into negative territory down to 2353.50.

If, then…
The overnight high touched this morning’s 2362.50 bias-up signal before reversing down. That’s not post-open, so it doesn’t require an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. But as noted during yesterday’s Market Wrap, neutralizing the 2362.00 attraction overnight would be free to trend down before the open. And the pattern through Wednesday’s close was likely to resolve by almost literally exploding up or imploding down — the overnight reaction suggests the latter. Somehow recovering pre-open could find an air pocket up to 2369.00. But continuing to resolve down would target unfinished business below at 2339.75-2342.25.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2354.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2351.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2349.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning resumed Monday’s rally. But it was “no-bias trending,” having originated after touching both the 2333.50 and 2342.25 bias signals without breaking either by 10:15. The afternoon’s 2357.00 bias-up target was probed by 3 points but never broken. Reversing down at the bias environment’s exit fell to 2351.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow sideways ranging eventually firmed into Europe’s opens, and then only a little further to within 1 tick of 2357.00. That is resistance, having retraced 61.8% of Tuesday’s late drop. Its reaction down has probed 2351.00 by 1 point.

If, then…
Tuesday’s rally gained no traction, similar to Monday’s. Also similarly, Wednesday morning is vulnerable to trending back down, as was Tuesday morning. But Tuesday did not trend back down. Wednesday is likelier to comply with the near-term bearish influence, less similarly, precisely because Tuesday did not. “Unfinished business below” at 2342.25 is also the beginning of “lower prior highs” down to 2339.75. Their support may suffice to launch the recovery’s next upleg, and to avoid the next lower attraction at Monday’s 2321.00 gap down. Somehow recovering to gap up above Tuesday’s 2360.50 high — or at least above 2357.00 — could extend intraday up to “higher prior lows” at 2369.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2348.00 would be likely to trigger the 2350.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2355.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market to her second time’s a charm maybe the interesting thing or things about yesterday’s rally one is that Tuesdays or Mondays really didn’t gain traction for itself or it was rewarding without putting into any other higher objective in the play so the only way to Rally durably any durable rally the next day should wait until have him buy some time in his last the four originating otherwise it’s generally sponsored by week and yesterday’s rally started too early as you can see late afternoon dipped that’s not a big Consequence the other big thing about yesterday’s rally was its origination during the environment nope I already been actually but that didn’t prevent breaking any way that should be traced to its broken 4225 at a minimum yesterday’s so it requires being traced or at least back down to some relevant weather is 4825 it’s a different kind of this morning’s influence as likely as it was yesterday morning which didn’t because to resolve differently ignoring the second consecutive morning isn’t it is 321 rallying without leaving any unf inished business below rallying to overcome that fear of influence at least he returned with required gapping up above yesterday’s high so if somehow that develops before the open then it develops before the open and 2369 area is basically hire Prairie Lowe’s and basically a air pocket up to it that’s in case of the Gap up okay any questions of the chart room as far as other markets the Aussie printed a fresh yesterday gap down it’s down under all prior Lowe’s in his you have to be were tested from above really even without that just reading that as a corrective bounce anyway unless there’s a second consecutive are closed today how to pound that letter was just delivered so strength here on that they oversee as to whether or not agree baby boys for the pound of it has already been reflected in this qualify actually and going forward here to make natural gas is just extending the rally why did Jeopardy and hear if I can get through here it gets to hear but I don’t have any bicycle to care for all right listen to recording here if there is any questions go to put into the charger then I’ll see you there before the open good luck today

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s gap down had extended overnight to fulfill the decline’s 2327.00 and 2317.00 objectives. Monday’s opening dip attacked the overnight low closely and briefly. The balance of the session rallied 23 points — and still remained in negative territory. Buyers gained no traction for their effort, which peaked upon touching the afternoon’s 2341.50 bias-up target.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s last-minute reaction down to 2337.00 wasted no time starting to recovery. Touching fresh highs at 2343.00 had dropped to 2339.50 through Europe’s opens. Two bounces since then have returned to 2339.50, and now through it to at least 2338.75.

If, then…
No “unfinished business above” Monday didn’t prevent probing higher overnight. The gap back up to Friday’s 2342.00-2345.00 close is a natural attraction post-open, and not only overnight. An attraction below is the gap at Monday’s 2321.00 opening gap down. Having closed above 2331.00 after testing 2317.00 2327.00 intraday, any dip Tuesday is likely to recover — whether from 2321.00 or 2311.00. Otherwise, gapping up to and through 2342.00-2345.00 could extend yesterday’s post-open recovery without delay.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2340.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2342.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2345.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it is Tuesday San Francisco’s Morning Market to her not a lot going on but there’s some specific action that isn’t going on overnight remember that yesterday was greeted after gapping down there was a Sunday night Gap downtrend it down through or 223 2770 gave way to 2317 within three types of the way open tested it as we discussed yesterday at this time during the market to are there were some suggestions among different asset classes that there was some Peak sentiment at the time and the balance of the session for us then send it back up now because of one thing because she s did not recover 2327 on a timely basis didn’t recover it to the first hour everything above it later is potentially week and its sponsorship not necessarily all the way and as it happens testing 2317 & 2327 recovered to close above 2331 which suggests that strong hands are coming in here so that’s not enough to reverse the trend back up and we’re not ever going to get a signal that in my methodology that the trend is reversing backup on the same day that the prior Trend makes a new extreme but yesterday did make a new extreme that’s because I don’t have any instances or at least overwhelmingly there just don’t new trend extreme section also being able to successfully reversed or signal that the Traders are so we have no requirement to retest Sunday night Slow yesterday other than the gap down yesterday’s gap down to 2321 from above and until closing above some prior hi that’s a very real risk or or a traction in any case not a requirement had any eBay for requirement at all it’s not a requirement in any certain time frame so what does that mean if the open today’s open can get out of other prior I like Fridays last Road in High River that bounce that we knew had done away with all the expended all that pent-up I’m pressure had enabled Sunday Night Sky app down Sunday nights drop if today’s open can get back out about that because yesterday’s rally didn’t get any traction it warded it’s fires but didn’t attract new buyers new sponsorship the bias environment lapsed under the new towers high in the final hour wasn’t entered above the new towers High others so the only way to reverse or to extend higher today and this morning prior to late afternoon at the earliest is to Gap or at least durably if we extend her anyway without giving up above a fryer high and Trend up this morning it’ll probably be doomed to failure later in the day so the market generally we’ll take care instead take advantage of the time that it now has and back and fill or utilize some of their supposed to close there’s an attraction to 2321 below yeah the market isn’t rallying overnight sufficient to Gabba it’s not I may try an extended higher yesterday after meeting the 23 4150 bicep Target and we acting down to that overnight action extended higher Gap that I just put it out back to Fridays close the cash fashion clothes 42 the Futures close 45 keep within a point of fully were tracing the Futures close before dipping back down and a little bit deeper so there’s a lot going on over relatively narrow range and not a lot of volatility extending little bit higher when tracing that but it’s interesting what there is not and what there is not a hug a pup indicated at least not at this moment I got up indicated above the Friday – 45 for instance without that the morning is going to be more vulnerable the backing and filling 221 or toward 21 and presumably but not reliably just too they’re all right let’s look at other markets any questions but please go to the Euro not represent the complex yesterday because it was basically flat to lower and it’s been even lower overnight standing the cell signal the pound extended higher yesterday we really didn’t have to but it did create this anchor this Gap up above all prior has that I want to be were tested From Below so with that context we know at least at this point any pull back is not durable Looney operating off of it so signal flex waiting around it’s so stage and then the Euro which also created this Gap up that will want to be were tested From Below its only objective that we had outstanding was 109 in this pattern and we had actual timing putting that in the play with Thursday’s dip and overnight Wednesday night having held a test of lower price but now there’s a gap up they don’t want to be were tested From Below but we’re also monitoring for is if there’s a second consecutive her clothes confirming what would otherwise be a break out yesterday I’m not expecting that confirmation silver object is 1790 and there’s a higher Prayer live 1830 1835 and then french fries above that so long as 1790 holds as support for is not broken from above and just trading flat not really slow at this stage gold trading off a little bit but as well it’s not reversing the trend and it had a confirm break out last week that’s now been fulfilled with an eventual third higher close and probably going to extend higher that fryer hi that was a morninghigh that it’s still follow to confirm break out that never produced its third eventual higher close Long Pond is in an interesting spot because this is Mike highest calculus Target 152 that remained in play because another Pool bathroom it had hell has had two prior to that and so this one was a little more aggressive than the others you can see that there was no more contemplation as a patient before extending hire in to 158 to the other objectives but 152 was greeted by gapping up this is one of them actually have been tested overnight this is one of those that we looked at yesterday morning at this time and so again these asset classes at work testing objectives that had potential the hold and suggesting them at stocks were going to be reversing the other way as well so the long run he’ll and also held it so but I just stood up to be at fullback limit that did create a gap at the book prize I don’t want to be were tested From Below that’s not to stay overnight but intraday and Below means from 150 107 this is the high of this whole range here 2106 actually and the deepest that they are actually got was 108 so bouncing back to this open back to yesterday’s open 15126 would be premature as far as neutralizing it’s attraction at this point you a little bit deeper dip first crude oil delayed exploiting the bottom that was trying to form that’s been trying to form by holding that prayer low and slow playing a recovering at least not letting sellers or gain traction delayed that for the sake of absorbing a cat down yesterday which is fine for only so long the Gap Town was absorb the optimism was restrained didn’t reverse it into positive territory left some unfinished business of the attraction back to Fridays close so it doesn’t that’s not allowed to extend indefinitely Or persistent definitely that really needs to be exploited much sooner rather than later gapping up two or not yet through that prior or gapping up through it and then dipping to retest this lower range 48 for instance before actually closing about 4850 that would be optimal to form in the bottom but it has to happen pretty much has to happen today there’s just not much opportunity to for the delay in here overnight and you can see that this is nothing in this pattern that alright otherwise before the open.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 2346.00 was at least 6 points short of Thursday afternoon’s 2352.25 prior high. That was too little to overcome the traction gained by Thursday afternoon’s decline. And extending there during the morning’s bias environment was too late. Catalyzed by headlines out of D.C., unfinished business below at 2331.00 was attacked to within 3 ticks into the final hour. Coinciding with prior lows, the timing was levered into a bottom. Its reaction up to 2347.25 held a 61.8% retracement of the intraday drop.

Overnight action’s new info…
Having been corrected by its late bounce, Friday’s drop resumed at Sunday night’s open. Gapping down to 2337.50 quickly extended to and through Friday’s low. Ranging at 2325.00-2329.00 was centered around 2327.00. Breaking lower greeted Europe’s opens within 3 ticks of 2317.00. Its reaction up has been resisted at 2327.00.

If, then…
2327.00 and 2317.00 are the decline’s next two lower attractions that we’ve been discussing. Having tested both, closing back above last week’s prior lows could start to signal momentum reversing back up. Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. Meanwhile, the decline has only a little more room below to briefly test 2311.00 before the template of an uncomfortable pullback evolves into a much deeper, dangerous correction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2327.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2331.00 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2335.50 would be unlikely to break under 2331.00 through 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s recovery from 2339.75 up to 2356.00 included no-bias trending. Only required to retrace 2350.50, dropping into the close was testing 2339.75. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high’s errant tick.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially rallying to 2349.50 retraced 61.8% of the drop from Thuirsday morning’s highs. Trending down since then has eventually reached 2341.00, essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close, and attacking yesterday’s 2339.75 lows.

If, then…
8-9 points up and then 8-9 points back down. Gapping up this morning just 3 points above the overnight high could have reversed the decline. A lot of buying pressure was expended to try getting there, and none of the ground that was recovered has been maintained. Now the open is probably too close for another bounce to offer that potential. But there’s just enough time to greet the open gapping down. Regardless, the failed Ascending Triangle that I described yesterday already suggests resolving sharply lower to 2331.00 or 2327.00, if not also to 2317.00. Only triggering bias-up would suggest otherwise.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2348.75 would be likely to trigger the 2346.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2343.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.